Updated Chances Of A White Christmas

sunshine

A clear crisp morning out there as skies are bright and sunny and for a change we’re seeing a lot of glare off the snow…so a good day for sunglasses. Temperatures this AM dropped into the 15-20° range. I was surprised it didn’t get any colder but I think there was enough of a breeze to keep the air stirred up a bit keeping us from dropping to our lower potential.

The snow field is expansive across the Midwest. As a matter of fact nationwide 46% of the country is under a blanket of snow. Compared to last year, we’ve doubled the snowcover. Last year on this date 23% of the country was covered in snow.

Here is a close up in black and white of the Midwest and you can see the snow rather well.

ScreenHunter_13 Dec. 21 09.59

The storm that effected us yesterday has moved towards the eastern part of the country and is creating problems there with snow in the Great Lakes region and rain heading towards New England. There were numerous flight delays, upwards of about 3 hours across the NYC region this AM. Click on these images to make them larger.

ScreenHunter_14 Dec. 21 10.09

It seems as of this writing that LaGuardia and Newark are having the biggest problems.

ScreenHunter_15 Dec. 21 10.13

Before I get off the storm from yesterday, here is a final ultra-clse-up view of the snowfield zoomed into KC. It’s sort of tough to make out but if you click on the image you can make things out, especially the various lakes in the region. This picture was taken yesterday although it may get automatically updated later today.

So with all that said our weather here now is sort of quiet. Again the main concern is whether or not we get moisture trapped underneath an inversion, trapping low clouds in place. The NAM model is showing this potential over the weekend and it makes forecasting temperatures rather difficult. If it does happen we get stuck int he 30s on Saturday, if not we could warm a bit more, because just above the surface there will be warmish air for this time of the year. On Sunday another cold front will push through and there is potential for a cloud deck from the melting snow to our north to move into the area as well. So the forecast isn’t as easy as it should be. Sunday may end up pretty chilly after a decent Saturday.

The real purpose of this blog is to update the chances of a White Christmas around here. assuming the snow we have out there melts a bit more, aside from shaded areas it will be tough for it to make it that far. So we need another storm to help the cause and the modelling for the last week or so has had various forms of a storm moving through the southern Plains states and they continue to do so this AM. The latest GFS model is showing a storm nearby later on Christmas.

It would be a fast mover, and it still looks like most of the precip would be to our south, but at least there is a “player on the field.” As MT talked about last night, you really need to watch these systems 4 days out like a hawk because it wouldn’t take much to see how this could be nudged 250-500 miles farther north on future model runs.  Actually IF the GFS is taken as gospel, and you should never do that…here is where a white Christmas may occur.

ScreenHunter_16 Dec. 21 10.26

Click on that image to make it larger.

So per the GFS the chances of a White Christmas are higher in the I-40 corridor from the OK Panhandle through Fayetteville, AR that it is here. We’ll see about that though over the next couple of days.

So with all that said, at this point I won’t change my thoughts about OUR chances of a White Christmas.

white xmas

IF that storm wasn’t there, the chances wouldn’t even be that good. Again since a player is on the field, shall we say, I can’t rule things out entirely.

Have a wonderful day!

Joe

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