Big Storm #1 And Maybe Storm #2

Christmas

Boy it’s going to be close and while a few flakes of snow can’t be ruled out on Christmas Day/Night, it appears more and more likely that our White Christmas chances are vaporizing before our eyes. Basically with whatever snow you have on the ground now, that will have to do for the next few days as while it will be plenty cold enough for snow, the next big storm will be passing too far south of the area to do us any real “snow good”. What this does mean though is the potential for record snows across the deep south into OK, AR and even southern MO for Christmas Day. IF you are traveling towards the I-40/44 corridor please watch for the latest forecasts and be alert to changing weather conditions. The latest NAM is suggesting snowfall over 12″ towards the Tulsa area.

The storm in question is across the western part of the country and is responsible for bringing lot’s of higher elevation snowfall to some of the mountains there. As a matter of fact they are forecasting several feet of snowfall out there (Southern Sierra Nevada chain).

This storm will be moving through the SW part of the country and into the southern Plains states over the next 48 hours. From there it moves into the Smoky Mtns. and up into the NE part of the country where it should dump quite a bit of snow for the interior parts of the NE. The SE part of the country could be under the threat of severe weather with this especially AL/MS/LA. Here is the latest day 3 outlook map from the SPC.

Depending on the coverage of these future storms in Dixie, and the length of time they are discrete and on their own, there would be the potential of tornadoes and perhaps a couple of strong ones on Christmas Day.

As this storm passes on by, come rather cold air will move in behind it, sending our temperatures on downward. Readings may be in the single digits particularly WED and THU AM…so be prepared for that locally.

white xmas

As this occurs we’ll be watching our next storm which is now way out toward the Central Pacific. This storm will take a similar track but potentially go through some sort of transition in the Plains states. So it’s possible that we could get some snow out of this later in the upcoming week. The GFS is not very optimistic about these chances but the Canadian/EURO would suggest a few inches possible. The problem is that storm #1 is going to be wiping away a lot of moisture from the southern Plains. Maybe storm #2 will not have much, if any, gulf moisture to work with as it chugs through the Plains states.

sat

Back to KC weather…through yesterday when KCI hit 47° (there were a lot of 50s on the south side though), for the month of December we are running 8.6° above average. Obviously we are not alone in this. It will be interesting to see how things change for the next week or so now that the colder air has arrived and temperatures may be below average for most of the rest of the month.

Here is a map from the Midwest Climate Center showing the expanse of warmer than average temperatures through the region.

What is also interesting is just how dry it’s been through this same area, although the further east you go, that does change dramatically. This next map actually takes into account the last week of November as well,

It really does highlight just how dry we’ve been for the last 30 days. That storm that we saw with the rain/snow (.79″ at KCI) was certainly welcome. If you break down our local area even more we remain on the dry side.

That’s about it for today. In case this is your last time checking the blog all of us in the FOX 4 Weather Center hop you have a wonderful Christmas and a Happy New Year. Here’s hoping Santa has less coal and more presents for all the good boys/girls and adults too!

Joe

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