“Some” Rain & Lots Of Warmth
Well over the past 24 hours or so some interesting things have happened in the weather world. Yesterday Chicago finally had more than 1″ of snow in a calendar day (1.1″) which means that a record has been set for the latest 1″+ of snow in a winter season that goes back 128 years and also the longest stretch of consecutive days without at least 1″ of snow (335).
Then there is our storm, which is going to be weakening and zipping by rather quickly. Temperatures for most of the area will be above freezing so we’re looking at a rain event for KC, although the amounts are not looking as healthy as one would like to see. Areas towards NE MO though, will be cold enough initially to have a period of ice and as a result a Freezing rain Advisory has been issued for NE MO.
Graphic courtesy of the NWS-Pleasant Hill
As far as our temperatures go here we should warm throughout the day tomorrow, perhaps to near 50° (or higher) by later in the day! It will stay warm Sunday night into Monday AM and highs on Monday may challenge record levels (if we can get some sunshine). Another record that is in jeopardy on Monday is a record warm LOW temperature…something else to think about.
So the latest data continues to trim away at our rainfall amounts…sadly this disturbance is going to be shearing out as it approaches KC and since the best moisture at the surface won’t be coming in till the disturbance passes, things are just not lining up the greatest for us. Still though it’s something.
Those are the totals through tomorrow evening. About 1/4″ in KC with lessor amounts farther south.
As we head towards Tuesday a cold front will be moving into the region and potentially interacting with the humidity in the air to give us some rain (maybe for some even some thunder.)
Dewpoints should be in the 50s or so ahead of the front so there is some potential for some decent rain with this. Here is the total forecasted rain from the NAM model through 3 1/2 days.
Potentially that’s another 1/4″ or so from the second round of rainfall. We’ll certainly need that otherwise this whole exercise of warming up, getting more than adequate gulf moisture for January, and then returning back to average will be a waste of a process.
A stronger push of cold air should move in on Thursday and again quickly move out by Saturday…it really is amazing watching these airmasses move through and just NOT have any staying power for the region.
I couldn’t even throw out the next chance of any significant snow around here…nothing is showing up for the foreseeable future. I mentioned to some friends last night at our station winter party that I was good with last winter…the lack of snow didn’t bother me and like many of you I enjoyed the “weird” winter we had…we were short staffed, I was working a ton already, so it was OK with me. This winter though is now getting on my nerves. While I’ll be surprised if we don’t get at least 8″ of snow this winter, it is getting rather depressing for us winter weather lovers. The thing that is frustrating is that we’re really not even getting any decent chances on any sort of consistent basis, or even, aside from the GFS model fantasy storms, anything that looks promising in the models.
So I’ll leave you with the stat of the day…only twice in KC weather record history has KC had back to back years of under 10″ of snow. In 1949-50 (5.5″) and 50-51 (9.0″) and then again in 2001-2 (8.2″) and 2002-3 (9.5″)…will this be the third time?