Record Highs, Then Storms, Then Snow?

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There is a lot going on across the region, not only this morning, but also over the next couple of days as a strong trof in the atmosphere (a big dip in the jet stream) moves through the Plains states and ushers in much chillier (think seasonable) weather after allowing warm air to overspread the region.

First, let’s start out with this mornings surface map of the Kansas City area as a warm to stationary front is draped along the I-70 corridor. South of the front in the warmer and more humid airmass, temperatures are starting the day almost 40°(!) above average. North of the front temperatures are running already close to the average highs for this time of the year. This warm front should lift towards the north over the next 6 hours and allow most of the area south of St. Joseph to get into the warmer air.

The trick about us getting a record high today is whether all this happens fast enough for KCI to reach at least 65° which is the record for the day. There is extensive cloud cover that will need to be eroded as well for all this to happen. It will be close in the Northland and may not happen till very late this afternoon. Remember that if KCI does not make it, it is NOT a record for KC. Since KCI is the “official” reporting station for KC that is where records are verified for and that’s been happening since the early 70s. areas that can break out into sunshine this afternoon, most likely on the southside, could see temperatures spike to 70°. (Noon Update: No problems getting that record, skies are turning sunny and at 11AM it was already 64°…only question is now how big a margin do we break it by….70s are not out of the question!)

ScreenHunter_08 Jan

Click on the image above to make it larger so you can see the variance of temperatures in the area.

All this is coming ahead of a cold front that according to the latest data has slowed in it’s passage through the KC area and now may not make it through till early tomorrow afternoon. That allows us to be warm and humid tomorrow AM through noon and with the front coming into that airmass, creates the opportunity for at least some thunderstorms to generate, especially along and east of the I-35 corridor. That could mean some much needed rainfall especially on the east and southeast side of the metro early tomorrow afternoon. The line of storms should come together across central and eastern MO later tomorrow afternoon as colder air rushes into the KC area…so our highs tomorrow may again be in the 60s before temperatures drop rather quickly in the afternoon.to near 40°. So tomorrow will be a very changeable day from a weather standpoint. This also could be a sneaky decent rain with the thunderstorms in the region…again favoring areas E/SE of the I-35 corridor.

Well for giggles, here is the latest NAM accumulated precipitation forecast through midnight Tuesday/early Wednesday. Granted it was way too optimistic about the rainfall over the weekend, but it does show how close most of KC is to some additional rainfall.

ScreenHunter_09 Jan. 28 09.02

As the colder air continues to come in Tuesday night, another piece of the storm will be moving through the region and may create some light snow since the air will be colder there would even be the chance of some minor accumulations across northern MO out of this…so the interesting weather continues through tomorrow night.

On Wednesday, it will dry out but we’ll be into the cold air again with highs only in the 30s (seasonable) before we get in the fringe of an arctic airmass WED night into THU with the coldest AM set up for FRI AM with lows back into the single digits.

On the subject of severe weather, odds favor areas off towards the east of the KC area as the SPC has outlined.

There aren’t any storms showing up behind this one, so let’s keep our fingers crossed and hope this one can produce. The Hi-res NAM actually tries to generate some convection early tomorrow AM as well in the warm air so the gang will be watching for that possibility later today on the newscasts.

Finally since we’re talking about thunderstorms, it’s a good time to remind you that tonight the NWS conducts it’s 1st Severe Weather training session of the year. It will be in Johnson County, KS (Shawnee Mission North HS) and will start @ 7PM.

Have a great day and let’s keep our fingers crossed and hope for more rainfall out of this thing before it moves away tomorrow afternoon.

Joe

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