Snow Moving Closer To KC (Update-9PM)

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I’m not overly impressed by the situation shaping up, with that said however I do have concerns about rush hour tomorrow 1) because we should at least get some snow and 2) because the wettness out there now will tend to freeze up towards daybreak tomorrow AM. Right now we’re still comfortably above 32° and the roads while damp will be fine for awhile. The snow is falling towards the north of the KC area and will gradually move towards us towards and after midnight. As it does so temperatures will drop to near freezing. Here is a look at the surface map as of the 8PM hour.

sfc

Click on that image to make it larger…notice that even in NE the temperatures are 32-34° so that air will be moving into the area overnight tonight and into tomorrow AM. Temperatures should continue to fall through the AM hours till about 9AM or so tomorrow, eventually getting into the 20s. So with temperatures closer to 32°, with any treatment and assuming the snow is not heavier than I think…roads may hold up somewhat in terms of conditions. Now IF the roads are untreated all bets are off.

Here is a look at regional radar…we still have some rain out there and the precip may briefly stop a bit later this evening…

sfc

That slot between the rain and the snow to the west is a dry slot that may briefly move in later this evening as well. So with the real accumulating snow holding off for another 6 hours or so and the general lightness of the snow, as opposed to the blizzard conditions we saw last month that resulted in a broad 1-4″ snow…my feeling is that this “storm” has the potential of bringing about dusting to 2+” or so. I guess there could be a few isolated 3″ totals on the far north side of the metro…perhaps even north of KCI…but at this point I think 1-2″ would be the common accumulation reports for most of the area.

I’ll bring the FOX 4 Snowfall Potential number up to a 7 based on the situation…I’m still not 100% convinced we’ll get more than 1″ but again it’s certainly possible. Here is the HRRR model showing about 1″ of snow for most of the metro…through 8AM.

I think those totals for N MO are a bit too high, although 2-4″ from 36 highway northwards wouldn’t surprise me.

Here is the RAP short term model…essentially the same idea.

I may update things later tonight before I go to bed…about 1AM or so.

Joe

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