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Rain For Us (Again) & A Blizzard Update

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We’ll actually start the blog in the NE part of the country since the weather there is heading downhill fast now and for the next 24 hours, from NJ up through New England some amazing stuff will be occurring. Starting now to hear reports of thundersnow across parts of NYC where thus far anywhere from 1-3″ has fallen. Closer to the coastline, they are in the transition stages after starting out as rain, and the airports have had less than 1/2″ as of this writing.

The storm itself is actually in the process of intensifying fast now, and in some aspects is actually stronger than the models indicated this AM. It will continue to organize and move towards and off the coast of eastern Maine through tomorrow. There is a wonderful write up be Wes Junker, a “somewhat” retired meteorologist that really explains the dynamic processes of what’s going on with the storm. It’s not overly complicated and for those who are interested in weather and the extremes of weather it’s certainly a good read and you may learn some things as well. Whether or not any of that stuff will ever happen around here this winter remains to be seen but at least for them it’s an interesting read. Take a look the article is entitled the “Science Behind The Storm.”

One of the things that is catching my attention this afternoon is the amount of moisture that the storm is sucking into it that is in the atmosphere right now out east. Here is a look at the precipitable water (the available moisture it the atmosphere). As that moisture is sucked into the storms circulation and then flung up into the cold air, snowfall rates of 1-3″ will be possible, and for some of the mountainous areas of MA, perhaps even some 4″ per hour totals are possible and the air is pushed up the sides of the mountains/higher hills.

ScreenHunter_05 Feb

The pressure of the storm is forecasted by the RAP model to drop to 971 mbs (28.67″) in the next 12 hours or so.

Here is the storm now…

As I mentioned yesterday there is also some warmer than average water sitting out there as well, so that too may help in the development of the storm and it’s ability to create extra precipitation.

You can see the developing storm with this visible satellite link (although tonight it may go dark). Here are some particulars concerning the storm for the NYC area.

and from the NWS in Boston.

States of Emergency are in effect for RI, CT, NY and MA and a limited one is in effect for ME. Travel is being banned in CT and MA this evening through tomorrow AM because of the combination of wind and heavy snowfall.

OK so let’s move on and talk about our weather around these parts. which is somewhat interesting, but really should be more interesting with a decent upper level storm moving through the Plains. As I speculated about a couple of days ago, this storm is going to pass towards the NW, and it too will be energetic, but with that path there is a high chance of us getting a major dryslot out of this here in KC and as I mentioned yesterday, the storm yesterday will have been “wetter” than the upcoming storm.

Speaking of which, we’ve certainly gotten wet over the last couple of weeks or so. Take a look at this image which shows the amount of moisture in the last 2 weeks.

ScreenHunter_06 Feb. 08 14.43

Notice though that for areas just NW of the metro amounts have been significantly less overall, especially through NE KS and NW MO.

This upcoming storm for us, which is now across the western part of the country will eventually move towards Salt Lake City and then through central NE. The dry slot would cut down on the rain totals for us. As a matter of fact, odds heavily favor the area getting less than 1/4″ of moisture from the system. I also expect that this dry slot will lead to a mostly dry Sunday. So in reality the rain chances go up later tomorrow through tomorrow night and then really dwindle on Sunday. The front, attached to the storm, will sweep through the area around lunch on Sunday. Temperatures though may approach 60° Sunday before the cooler air moves into the region and Monday will be a chillier day. I should also mention that a lot of wind is expected over the next couple of days.

It’s really too bad, decent storm, blizzard across parts of the central and northern Plains states, and we get the dreaded dry slot. Here is a look at what’s expected across the W NE area over the weekend.

By the way this storm is not connected to the blizzard back east.

More over the weekend.

Joe

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