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Joe’s Wx Blog: The Ides Of March

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Well another March day has come and just about gone and once again temperatures are well below average for highs and for that matter for overall temperatures as well. From a high temperature standpoint at least we’re seeing temperatures vastly different this March as opposed to LAST March. The difference is astounding as a matter of fact. So today I did a quick research project to illustrate what a difference the two months are. Take a look at the image below, and click on it to make it larger and more readable!

ScreenHunter_08 Mar. 13 14.11

Take today for example, last year on 3/13 it was 80°…today we’re struggling to get to 40° as of this writing. When you look at the previous 12 days only on the 8th was our 2013 high better than the 2012 high…and considering we were in a VERY warm pattern during the middle of March 2012…we will continue to see large differences in temperatures between the two months.

The good news is that we’re about to shake the cold air that’s gripped our area as MUCH warmer air aloft will be moving into the region tonight, and this air will translate towards the ground tomorrow and especially Friday as highs will soar to finish the work week. The record high on Friday is 82° set back in 1914. it looks safe, but we are primed to surge Friday morning through afternoon just ahead of a cold front that will once again change our weather and usher in the chilly air to finish the weekend.

Tomorrow will see our warmest day so far this month as a weak cold front moves into the area. We should see rapid AM warming tomorrow and I still feel a run towards 60-65 is likely despite the front sliding through in the afternoon. There shouldn’t be much wind tomorrow so really a very nice day is ahead.

Whatever shot of “cool” air moves in, will quickly move back out again tomorrow night and Friday is the day when temperatures will soar through the 70s as the air just above the surface warms up dramatically.

Here is a look at the temperatures @ 850 mbs or about 5000′ above the surface at 7PM on Friday…showing the “warmer” orange-red colors moving through the Plains with those colder blues-purples across Canada.

It really is an ideal set-up for warmth…but the problem is, like I wrote about last week, any little kink in the flow will switch the winds, and there is still a lot of cold air residing across Canada, and unfortunately some of it will start moving into the region over the weekend and early next week.

Here is the surface forecast for 7PM on Friday, showing the leading edge of the cold air across the Northern Plains region…moving southwards.

gfs

That colder air will ooze into the metro Friday night into Saturday so highs on Saturday will be about 20-25° cooler with a lot more in the way of clouds. I wouldn’t be shocked if there are some sprinkles or even a couple of patches of light rain zipping in from the WNW and moving ESEwards. I think the Snake Saturday parade will be OK, just not nearly as nice as last year.

Then the question arises what to do about Sunday-St. Patrick’s Day. Our model solutions range from nearly a snowstorm on the EURO to not much of anything happening on the GFS (American model) with temperatures in the 40s to a rain event for part of the day on the Canadian Model with temperatures around 40-45°

I see why the EURO model is doing what it’s doing, but it does seem to be the outlier of the various solutions at this point. So let’s run with some sort of combination between the other two models and that would mean a raw day with at least some rain and temperatures only around 40° (and that could be a push). Obviously vastly different than last year! Just for giggles (hopefully) here is the EURO forecast for snow amounts…

I want to mention that this forecast is very changeable and we’re still some 4+ days away but you may want to think about buying a green umbrella. Hopefully you won’t need a green shovel!

Joe

Joe

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