Joe’s Wx Blog: Storms and flakes

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We’ve got a little something for everybody in today’s edition of the weather blog. An early blog for me on this Saturday as well since I’m heading up to Zona Rosa to help judge the Easter Parade up there. Hopefully we’ll stay dry.

There have been several areas of storm this AM, most of them staying away from KC proper, although we’ve had some rain in the metro as well. By far the most organized area has been to the south of KC this AM. Here is a look at radar which also shows another area near and east of St Joseph that is moving towards the east too.

To put that radar into motion…click here.

as of this writing there really isn’t anything threatening the metro, as a matter of fact skies are clearing out to the west of here and my suspicion is that skies here will be clearing out nicely towards or after lunch. That’s when the temperatures should pop up into the 60s.Here is the early AM satellite picture showing the clearing skies to the west.

By later this afternoon there will be a weak wind shift line on top of the area that MAY provide a weak focus for some additional storms to develop as temperatures heat on up into the mid to upper 60s. The instability doesn’t look that great to me, and the covergence is weak I believe as well so I’d place the chance at about 20% that anything of significance pops up. here is the RAP model forecast (short-term model) for 4PM today.

sfc

Tomorrow at this point looks pretty good with highs again back into the 60s.

Our much talked about cold front is due in later tomorrow evening and will send temperatures plummeting into the 30s on Monday. There is also the possibility of some snow near or before daybreak on Monday. See yesterday’s blog for why there is a chance that could create some issues for Monday AM rush. Monday afternoon will see improvement with temperatures near 40°.

That’s here in KC…what about Chicago and the season opener for the Royals. Here is what Chicago is expecting for the weekend and for Monday…looks awfully cold up there with highs in the 30s and wind chills in the 20s.

The colder air that moves in for Monday will last through Wednesday before temperatures start to moderate towards the end of the week. Here is a look at the temperatures @ 5000 feet for the early part of the week…you can clearly see that the cold air is still hanging around here, but by far the worst of the cold shifts off towards the Great Lakes region.

For the times…12Z is 7AM and 00Z is 7PM…this map should auto-update this afternoon with the newest GFS forecast. It will show the same thing that I talked about above.

So we’ll moderate towards the end of the week…now I wonder what the weather will be like on Opening Day for the Royals in KC. Earlier this week I talked about the potential for mild weather with highs near 70° and at this point I see no reason to change those thoughts. The EURO model for later Monday the 8th is below…showing a front to the northwest of here. Click on that image to make it larger…

ScreenHunter_01 Mar. 30 09.34

On the right hand side is the forecasted temperatures for the 5000′ level and you can see a warm pocket of air there which is on top of the KC region…that’s good.

What’s interesting is the upper level wave on the left side map down in the SW part of the country…we’ll need to watch that for our next decent chance of widespread rainfall. Interestingly the GFS also has something going on there, but actually leaves it out there for a few days before kicking it out towards the KC area later in the week…11th-13th or so. All this is obviously speculation at this point…but I like the warm trends that I’ve been seeing for awhile for at least Opening Day in KC.

That’s about it for today…I’ll be tweeting some radar updates this morning/afternoon on our twitter Page @Fox4wx so follow me/us for more updates this afternoon.

Joe

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