Joe’s Wx Blog: Storms and another big chill
I could see this forecasted scenario playing out a couple of days ago and sure enough another return of cold air is on the way to the KC region, although how we get there is going to be a bit of a process and the good news is that we’ll salvage milder temperatures for the rest of the weekend before a line of showers and storms tomorrow afternoon move through the region and start the slow descent that will again take us down into the 40s for a couple of days or so.
This chilly weather has sure been persistent…take a look at how things have gone during the month of April so far, and granted we’re only about 12+ days into it per this map I’m about to show you…but gosh it’s been cold.
The monthly temperature is running about 3° below average here in KC officially @ KCI.
How about this, up in Marquette, MI…there is still 38″ of snow on the ground. Yesterday they tied a daily record with 9.4″ of snow + their high was only 28° which was the coldest high temperature on the 12th as well. They’ve yet to hit 50° (at least we have) and they’re wondering about the latest record for hitting 50° which goes back to 4/26/65. So spring is delayed it seems for many across the central and northern Plains and the forecast maps over the next week or so don’t offer any hope that things will improve for another 7-10 days or so.
For us a cold front will arrive sometime later tomorrow afternoon. Associated with it will be some rain and storms. I’m not sure how much decent gulf moisture will work it’s way to the area but I’m convinced a lot of wind will ahead of the front and that will start sometime later tonight. Dewpoints are in the mid-upper 50s along the coast of TX now and strong winds tomorrow AM of 30-40 MPH or so may allow some of that moisture to get to us. Although it may be really shallow and not too deep. Some of the model data may be a bit aggressive forecasting dewpoints near 60° tomorrow afternoon. With all the wind and mixing, dewpoints will probably be in the 50-55° range I think. Here is the forecast map for tomorrow afternoon, showing the front off to the west of KC…it should arrive sometime between 3-7PM or so…
Rain and some storm activity show fire along the front as it moves towards the I-35 corridor later in the afternoon however the instability in the atmosphere doesn’t look that great and there may be clouds as well for part of the day tomorrow, reducing our heating somewhat…so I not that impressed with the potential of any severe t/storms in our region. There may be a chance of something severe closer to SE KS and maybe SW MO as well.
Behind the front the air is cooler, but not necessarily that cold, at least initially. The cooler air will flow into the region tomorrow night into Monday. We should have some limited sunshine, or at least some thin spots in the clouds, allowing temperatures to warm back to about 55-60° or so.
From there though it gets cooler. Moisture just above the surface will start to flow over the cooler airmass. This is a recipe for mostly a low gray overcast sky with occasional showers every so often….and that looks to be the case on Tuesday with highs tumbling to the 40s to near 50°.
Then by Wednesday into Thursday we’ll focus on an upper level storm that will be moving into the southern Rockies and creating more lift along the boundary that moves in tomorrow evening and sinks towards the I-44 corridor. That means more of a bonifide rain pattern developing…and that should be another soaking rain for the region. The storm should move through THU AM and colder air will move in behind the storm. So that’s why the end of the week will be cold as well.
Their is a question about whether or not the stalled front to the south will be able to lift northwards on WED with the storm moving into the Rockies. At this point I feel it should stay to our south, keeping us in the chillier air. It’s something to watch though because IF it can lift northwards the potential is there for a one day warm-up on WED.
One benefit of staying in the chilly air is that we don’t have to worry about severe weather around here and once again, much like the past week, the higher risks of severe weather will be well south and SE of the KC region. Here is the SPC outlook for the week showing those thoughts.
That’s about it for today…have a great weekend and I’ll update the blog again tomorrow afternoon.