Joe’s Wx Blog: Winds/storms/cold!
Well we’ve been talking about how the strong winds were going to crank up last night and today and boy they are blowing out there with wind gusts 45-50 MPH across the region. This is ahead of a decent cold front that will be moving into the region later today and with it bring a chance of rain and some thunderstorms to the region. The cold front is still to the west of here and should arrive after 4PM today.
Here is a look at the 1PM surface map showing the front. There is a sliver of 50°+ dewpoints trying to sneak up towards us near the Wichita area and southwards…not sure if they will make it here or not…with all the wind blowing we’re mixing down some pretty dry air…and it’s mixing out that moisture return.
Also notice how the winds here and westwards have a slight SW turn to them…this is reducing some of the “convergence” along the front, and while the SPC has upgraded us to a “slight” risk of severe weather, my feeling is any severe activity for us would be isolated at best, there is a somewhat better chance SE of the KC metro area…lets say from Pleasanton to Butler to Sedalia. It’s something to watch for the afternoon though just in case those thicker and somewhat juicier dewpoints sneak up the state line. We’re also VERY capped right now considering temperatures are only 70-75° or so.
There are no real changes needed to my forecast thoughts for the next couple of days and I detailed those out for you in yesterday’s weather blog.
There is a big question, that I talked a bit on the air, about Wednesday’s forecast and how warm it will get…I’ve sort of vacillated on this for the last couple of days and I’ve played it cool yesterday and this AM after having temperatures in the mid 60s on Friday AM (for Wednesday). It’s a fascinating look from the forecast sounding perspective as temperatures at 7AM WED AM will be in the 60s just a few thousand feet off the ground. Meanwhile @ 7AM WED we may only be around 45° on the ground. The trick to the forecast is where will our retreating warm front set up.
The front that comes through tonight will settle down towards the I-44 corridor…then sit there for a couple of days…as a strong upper level storm lifts through the western Plains states on WED AM, it may force this front back to the north as a warm front…south of the warm front the air will be warm and humid (think 70s and dewpoints in the 60s=juicy). Where this front ends up will be the key to the local forecast. It’s very possible this warm air gets into the metro and surges the temperatures and the dewpoints to very springtime levels. It’s also possible that as this is occurring that temperatures range from the 40s to the 70s through the viewing area…
Should this retreating front not make it this far north…then we stay in the cold air with a good rain. Should the front get up to us, placing us in the warm and humidity air, there would be the opportunity of at least some severe weather on Wednesday especially from KC south and SEwards.I will probably start nudging the forecast UP about 10° for Wednesday for the newscasts tonight. Also I will increase the FOX 4 Severe Weather Potential a few notches because of the potential in the next few hours and also for the potential on Wednesday.
Regardless of all this another very strong push of cold air will move in when the storm and front push through the region later Wednesday into early Thursday and this will set the stage for a potential freeze FRI and SAT AM.
That’s it for today…have a great afternoon!