Joe’s Wx Blog: Reed Timmer + heat/cold

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I’ve mentioned this a couple of times on the blog but wanted to again give you a heads up that Reed Timmer from TVNweather.com will be speaking here in KC on Wednesday night at the Argosy Casino. This is a presentation put together by the KC chapter of the American Meteorological Society and the National Weather Association (AMS/NWA). This meeting, like all our meetings is open to the public but there are some other details that you need to do concerning getting more info and also RSVP’ing so that we can get an accurate head count as we plan out the night. You’ll have the opportunity to join us for a buffet dinner or should you want to just see his presentation, which will include the perils of chasing as well as what he saw when Hurricane Sandy hit and also see all 3 Dominators we’d love to have you out, who knows maybe you’ll decide to join and have the opportunity to learn more about meteorology. we try to keep most of the meeting geared to the general public and again ALL are welcome. To learn more about what you need to do to attend the meeting I invite you to go to the KC AMS/NWA webpage here. 

We also have a KC AMS/NWA facebook page here.

Onto our weather which is just spectacular today. As of this writing we’re approaching 70° after a morning low near 40° with some dense fog to start out the day. Skies should stay sunny for the rest of the day.

The warmth as talked about lately will be hanging around through Tuesday and maybe into Wednesday as well. As a matter of fact there is some potential for us to be the warmest we’ve been so far this year, as highs on Tuesday may surge into the middle 80s ahead of a cold front that will be moving in later in the day. This front will push through but it appears the chillier air will lag behind the front somewhat and move in during the day on Wednesday. Check out what the hi-res NAM shows for Tuesday afternoon ahead of the front…

ScreenHunter_01 Apr. 28 13.00

Click on that image to make it larger…

A secondary and much stronger front will move through on Wednesday. There is still a large discrepancy in how things are going to play out later in the week, but the odds of have unseasonably COLD weather for early May are still very high. we’re talking some 20-25° below average for highs. There are also questions about cloud cover and whether or not more frosts are heading this way…that is something we’ll figure out as the week goes along. Wednesday is also a tough day to figure as the front may take it’s sweet time moving through and the data suggests where the front has moved through may only be in the 40s while areas ahead of the front may again make it into the 70s. I’ll play KCI in between as I’ve done so far this weekend with highs in the mid-upper 60s. There is a high potential for a temperature bust for the forecast on WED…and the timing of the rain will be determined by the frontal passage…it’s possible the decent rains hold off till later in the day. In a weird way, the longer the rain holds off the better chances it lingers through part of Thursday.

We also have our very popular School Day at the K program coming up on Thursday @ 10AM…and regardless of what model you look at, one thing is for sure it may be the coldest School Day we’ve ever done. Temperatures may only be in the 40-45° range. There is still concerns about rainfall during the show…and I’ll keep the chance in for at least the AM hours on THU. Regardless it’s going to be cold and blustery with wind chills in the 30s. By the way, our friend Reed Timmer will be out there as well talking to all the school children about what he does and how it does it. Plus he’ll be showing all 3 Dominators for the 1st time. We have so much planned and would hate to fight the rain again this year like we did a couple of years ago. Whenever you plan a big outdoor event you always are concerned about the weather. Also the show is rain or shine, as we proved a couple of years ago, but should the worst case scenario occur and the baseball game itself is cancelled early in the day then I’m not sure how things will play out. My suggestion is to watch FOX 4 in the AM on THU for the latest show information…especially early through 7AM. I don’t want to jinx things but I try to be the one who thinks about possibilities as much as possible.

As for the system itself, there are no real changes to what I wrote yesterday. The GFS model, yesterday and last night followed the steps of the most persistent EURO model with the evolution of the storm in the Midwest and it’s effects on our area. Today the GFS went back to sort of what it was doing last week…making the system a bit more progressive and drying things out on THU. It’s by it’s lonesome on this. While it can’t be discounted entirely, upper level storms are notorious for forecasting headaches in terms of where exactly they stall and spin for awhile, I’ll use some of the other model data to put together my forecast…which means I won’t be changing things too much.

It really is tragic in a weather sense to look and see what some of the models are trying to do later int he week, as the potential of real lousy weather for early May may linger into the weekend. Again these systems are VERY fickle and we’ll just take things one day at a time

One good thing about this is that the cold atmosphere kills any severe weather worries which is good for most of the population but bad for the chasers out there who are getting very antsy with the way things have evolved so far this Spring. Last season was pretty quiet and so far this season is very quiet in terms of the numbers of tornados.

So far there have been 74 reports of tornados this month. Heck January was more active with 89. Last April there were 233 tornados nationwide. As a matter of fact through April last year we had close to 600 reports of tornados in the USA. So far this April there have only been about 225. A big difference.

Have a great afternoon/night and I’ll update the blog again tomorrow.

Joe

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