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Joe’s Wx Blog: Not out of the woods yet

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Everything went as much according to plan yesterday as they possibly could. An area of strong to severe storms moved through the region in the evening as expected and did mostly “minor” damage to trees with quite a few power lines down and some minor outbuilding damage connected to the wind and even in a few rare cases the hail. This was very accurately forecasted without the emphasis on tornadic storms. When you think that this was talked about 1 week ahead of time…overall I’m very pleased with how things played out from a forecast standpoint and from a blog standpoint. You’re only as good as your last forecast in this business so now let’s move on to today.

Already we’re seeing some strong to potentially severe t/storms move through the far southern reaches of our viewing area. Severe T/Storm warnings are out for Bates/Linn counties to the south of the metro where there is a boundary just sitting there and will continue to be a focus of additional storm development through the day today and there may be a slight northwards push to the convection as well. Here is a look at radar from the NWS in Pleasant Hill, MO with the latest warnings if there are any during the course of the day. This will automatically update for you every 5 minutes or so throughout the day today.

How far north will these storms get…my thoughts are that storms will be possible in a line from I-435 on the south side of KC and points southwards and eastwards throughout the day. These storms may at times produce hail and gusty winds. I continue to think the tornadic risk will be pretty small with those storms. The SPC is highlighting a region to the south as well as having a better chance of severe weather.

KC is in a SLIGHT category and it’s not out of the question that something more isolated could occur closer to the Downtown area as well today but my feeling is the focus will be more towards the S/SE of the metro area. I’d place the chances at about 40% for the metro and 70-80% farther to the southeast in the area outlined above.

Actually today will be a tricky forecast from a temperature standpoint. I can see very easily how highs today will only be in the 70s on the south side while up north where additional sunshine will be prevalent, highs could spike in the 80-83° range as I talked about last night.

The better risk of tornadic storms will be much farther to the south as the SPC has outlined. Could be another busy day for the folks in OK.

This is all coming about because of an upper level storm that is spinning around in the upper Midwest. Here is the water vapor image showing the various areas of “vorticity” (remember we talked about those yesterday) that represent areas of rising air when one is approaching.

The reason why it’s totally NOT out of the question that the KC Metro gets something today is because of those little X’s towards the TX Panhandle area. They may be able to get some additional activity going. It will be one of those days where we’ll be analyzing the maps carefully assuming we get enough heating to destabilize things. The bottom line is let’s not totally let our guard down for severe storms today despite the fact that the highest potential is to the S/E of the Downtown area. Additional rains are possible this evening within the metro however so there may be more rainfall before midnight. Another area that will need to be monitored is to the NW of the metro…associated with a weak front that is lurking…

sfc

The Pleasant Hill NWS has recently made available one of their in-house model runs that shows this rough idea of what radar may look like come 1PM today.

and then @ 7PM tonight…

Again as a reminder this is just a model run, but I think it gives you an idea of the potential for today. We’ll be watching the data carefully as the day moves along.

So with all that said here is an updated timeline:

Today through 3PM: Additional storms are possible south of KC…and some could be severe with gusty winds and quarter sized hail. For KC proper, we should stay dry as the storms slide to the south. Rumbles of thunder though on the south side are likely this AM.

3PM-6PM: There should be a lull around the metro as skies break up and temperatures warm up. Also it will be rather muggy again

6PM-Midnight: Additional storms should develop close to or in the KC area. Storms might be severe with hail/wind the main threats.

Tuesday: Scattered storms are possible…chances under 30%

Yesterday there were quite a few severe weather reports around the region…mainly for wind with the occasional hail stone(s) thrown in. I sent out these tweets late last night showing the reports int eh region/metro.

and a little closer to the KC metro…

The broken trees represent wind damage, the chunks represent hail and the curly Q looking icons show the gusty wind reports over 50 MPH. So certainly quite a few and also more than we’ve seen int he last couple of years or so, considering there was little to no severe weather last year.

Thankfully we didn’t see anything like this yesterday courtesy of Reed Timmer and the gang @ tvnweather.com. This was towards Edmund, OK. (turn down the volume though)

That tornado then headed to Shawnee, OK which took a hard hit from the storm…this video is from Brandon Sullivan and TornadoTitans.com

That’s it for today. I’m going to be tied up this afternoon but am on standby for any potential severe weather in the region. Have a great Monday!

Joe

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