Joe’s Wx Blog: Weekend Storm Chances

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Another wonderful afternoon out there with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the lower 70s. As expected clouds bubbled up before the lunch hour and will be with us off and on through about 5PM when the sun’s heating starts to come down. As that happens the updrafts from the sun’s heat will slow down and the clouds will mostly shrivel up and fall apart rather quickly. The bottom line is that the evening looks just as nice as yesterday so outdoor plans will go off without a hitch from Mother Nature.

Over the weekend, as I’ve blogged about for quit some time, our risk of rain will be on the increase The timing continues to be later Saturday evening into early Sunday AM and at this point most, if not all the daytime hours of the weekend here in KC proper look to be dry. Areas in NW MO will deal with the storms earlier tomorrow evening (perhaps after 6PM or so) while areas closer to the Lakes region may deal with the storms, or the last raindrops closer to sunrise on Sunday.

As far as the what’s and whys, feel free to read my blog from yesterday since everything is about the same. Now the question is will there be severe weather with the activity moving in?

I still feel the highest risk of this will be across NW MO/SE NE and parts of KS. Since this area will be closer to the origination point of the storms, the risk is higher. As the storms evolve then should transition more to a line of storms as they head this way. that process should reduce the individual storm severe risk and create more of a straight line wind risk. This should weaken as the area approaches KC. the later into the night we go the lower the risk of severe weather I think. Should the storms arrive closer to 9PM, there will be a higher chance of severe weather in the KC region.

Here is the SPC outlook for later tomorrow night.

 

With that said I’m only going to bring the FOX 4 Severe Weather Potential up to a 3 for now and evaluate it again tomorrow afternoon. IF I had more confidence in an earlier arrival to the storms I’d increase the number a bit more. Since I think the storms will be later rather than earlier I think the risk is a bit lower.

It also appears that we’re going to get a quick blast of summer heat into the region Tuesday and depending on whether or not we have a t/storm cluster (MCS) move into the region WED AM, perhaps the heat lingers on Wednesday as well. Confidence in the MCS formation is still extremely low from 5 days out. The newest EURO would just say hot and dry with temperatures approaching the middle 90s. the GFS/Canadian are not as hot and it does have the storm chances for the middle of next week. Lets wait a few more days to get some better confidence in this.

Meanwhile Andrea continues to work it’s way up the coastline of the eastern US. Rainfall is the concern with this storm and it continues to be a prolific rain producer across the NE part of the country where airport delays are running into the 1-3 hour range. Here is a look at how much rain has fallen over the past couple of days…

ScreenHunter_09 Jun. 07 13.38

 

Andrea is still a minimal tropical storm and is located in NC close to the SC/NC border area. Here is the forecasted path for the next several days for Andrea (and her remains as it will transition to a post-tropical storm by tomorrow I think).

 

Did you know that so far this year, since 3/1 we’ve had 12 days with highs at or above 80°…only 12. Comparing that to last year, when we had almost 30 days through 6/7 with highs 80° + including 4 days with highs 90°+. Rainfall has been doubled from year to year thus far…and things are a somewhat greener now then last June at this time. it really wasn’t for another couple of weeks when we really had baked out the soil, and then the temperatures went all nutty on us for the rest of the summer.

So let’s compare last April, may and early June to 2013 for the same time frame…

First last year…click on that image to make it larger…

ScreenHunter_10 Jun. 07 13.50

 

Now this year…

ScreenHunter_11 Jun. 07 13.51

There is a pretty decent difference comparing things from year to year…

That’s about it for today…I’ll write another update tomorrow afternoon before 2PM as far as the storm risk goes…

Joe

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