Joe’s Wx Blog: More storm Chances

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Well yesterday afternoon was impressive, and when I wrote the blog in the early afternoon, there wasn’t a lot going on except for a small cluster of storms in far SE KS and NE OK. I was struggling to figure how things were going to play out…about 1 hr afterwards though that small cluster of storms enlarged, organized and roared to the NE with heavy rain/strong winds and some flooding. Wind reports were 55-70 MPH or so, with a higher gust off near Centerview, MO (75 MPH). It was impressive. Here is a look at the various reports of severe weather that occurred yesterday.

ScreenHunter_06 Jun. 16 08.09

and a close up into JOCO especially which took a pretty decent hit from the storms.

ScreenHunter_07 Jun. 16 08.10

There were at one point some 17K customers without power in the area per KCPL…

There was also tremendous rainfall. Flooding in many of the usual sections occurred as well because of the rapid runoff. Let’s start with a trip into the Northland first.

ScreenHunter_03 Jun. 16 07.55

Now into the central sections of KC

ScreenHunter_04 Jun. 16 07.55

and finally into the south part of the metro where amounts were over 2″ in spots…

ScreenHunter_05 Jun. 16 07.56

It’s interesting to me that with all the “bad” watches that SPC has issued for the area this season, they didn’t issue a watch for this event. Granted it’s hindsight but a watchbox that included E KS and W/C/NE MO would’ve been applicable…again it’s hindsight, but we’ve seen some mysterious watches this season.

Our local NWS issued their first warnings @ 2:55 PM and issued 14 warnings overall…so those bases were covered nicely. A lot of warnings though without a watch however.

Today is a bit more clear, or as I type this cloudy. A lot of clouds are streaming this way from KC and skies are pretty gray out there. There is still a lot of moisture in the air and dewpoints are in well in the 60s. The clouds should thin during the afternoon especially and highs today will be in the 80s once again. We hit 90° yesterday @ KCI.

There is still a weak boundary in the area and with heating this afternoon we should get unstable again…

sfcHere is a look at the CAPE values, which is one way we measure the instability in the atmosphere..this map is valid for later this afternoon.

 

They’re not exactly maximized around here…more so across SE KS and also in SD. Not surprisingly there isn’t a lot of precip being cranked out for here through the afternoon hours.

Odds are more favored for storms to develop towards the west of the region and move to the SE…how much of this activity gets into the area later this evening and overnight tonight still remains to be seen but that to me is our better chance of seeing additional storms in the area, some with the potential of additional heavy rainfall.

After this there are all sorts of disturbances that will need to be watched for additional storms throughout the week but additional storms are possible through Friday…my bet at this point is something again on Thursday. Other models suggest Wednesday…we’re now in a pattern that basically says that day to day we’ll need t see where these clusters end up forming and migrating. Plus the outflows from these future clusters will also play a role in the potential storms formation. Again all sorts of things to watch this week, and it’s a forecast that no doubt will be changing as the week moves along.

I’ll be handling the AM shows on MON-WED for Karli so I’ll be on top of it for you or at least I’ll try to be

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