Joe’s Wx Blog: Storms For KC Area

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Took the day off yesterday with friends visiting from the St Louis area, and came back in this morning to track storms that initially were across NE KS and SE NE. These have since migrated into N MO and are now moving into parts of the KC metro as I type this blog.

These forecast complications are not unusual with the summer heat and humidity and it’s just another vast way that this summer is so much different than last summer around these parts. I’m not sure if we tracked any storm clusters close to KC from June through August last summer. I’m guessing there were some but I sure don’t remember any.

Here is a look at the doppler radar from the NWS in Pleasant Hill…notice the expanding area to the SE of the main area of rain to the NW of KC proper.

This is a classic case of an “outflow” boundary being pushed out of the main area of rain/storms. What is an “outflow” boundary. It’s basically a push of rain cooled air that is shoved out ahead of the storms. As that push of rain cooled air (think 60s for temperatures) pushes to the S/SE, it undercuts the heat and moisture that’s been on top of us. This results in additional left and new showers/storms. That’s been going on over the last few hours. There are always headaches when trying to figure out how far these boundaries will push away from the main storms, hence the forecast uncertainty. here is the 9AM surface map showing the boundary in question.

SFC

The other tricky part of this is where this boundary eventually bellies up and stops moving. That region will need to be watched this afternoon for new storms to develop as the sunshine makes things unstable. Clouds will play an important role in the different scenarios later this afternoon. So there are still questions about how hot we get today…probably more in the 80s for KC and perhaps even cooler north of KC with the rain cooled airmass hanging around. to complicate matters more, should any convection re-fire in the PM hours, the potential would be there for some marginally severe weather in the form of quarter-sized hail and also some straight line winds of 50-60 MPH. With that in mind I will increase the FOX 4 Severe Weather Potential to a 2 just to be on the safe side.

The atmosphere wants to be hot (or really typical for the summer). My thoughts earlier in the week about how the green terrain and moist grounds would impact the actual highs for KC certainly were correct. Not surprising to me at least is the fact that the official temperatures in KC since Monday have been 83, 85, 85, 88, 92, and 91 yesterday. Today may be a struggle to get to 90° depending on the cloud cover situation. So while some may already be complaining about the summer heat, in reality it hasn’t been that bad, although the humidity is something that we really didn’t deal with last summer with the drought conditions in place.

So for those getting tired of the heat…the EURO does offer some hope that things may become a bit more bearable…but there will be a wait for this to happen, perhaps some minor relief later in the week, then a better show to cool air later next weekend or early the following week. Here is a look at the forecasted temperatures for the KC area over the next 10 days off the EURO. It probably is a bit too high a couple of days this week though.

ScreenHunter_03 Jun

Click on the graphic to make it larger and more readable.

That’s about it for today…

Joe

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