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Joe’s Wx Blog: Some Rain/Heat & A Look Back

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We’re actually going to see some rain out there today…rain chances will stay with us through lunch it appears as a mass of light rain moves into the region. Assuming it doesn’t fall apart, it appears many areas will see a few hundredths on up to about 1/4″ of rainfall. This will eventually turn into steam during the afternoon as the sunshine comes right back out and temperatures pop to near 90°.

There have been a lot of forecasts calling for hotter weather…but I want to point out to you the difference in June of 2013 vs June of 2012. Remember it was about this point last year that after 2 months of little rainfall, we had really started to see the soil being totally baked out, in other words there was little to no moisture in it anymore and the terrain was starting to stress and go dormant leading to browning conditions. When this happened, temperatures started to soar. Interestingly, as this happened there were lower dewpoints allowing temperatures at night to drop off farther than normal. It was at this time last year that heat wave #1 was going to settle in for about 2 weeks with numerous days at or above 100°.

ScreenHunter_01 Jun. 25 08.00

The above is a chart showing high temperatures @ KCI (official for KC) for that 2 week span. We peaked at 105° on 6/28 and again on 7/7. The hottest we got for the entire summer was 106° on 7/25/2012. After 7/7 there was a minor break (remember the decent weather for the All-Star Game) for a few days before the heat re-surged into the area on the 14th or so.

Thus far this June the highest has been 93° @ KCI. We’re struggling to get more than 2 days with highs in the 90s in a row right now. Vastly different from last June. Sunday and yesterday were both 89° @ KCI…this is actually typical of summer around here.

This is not a heat wave pattern for us, and while the humidity is certainly higher than last June contributing to the uncomfortableness out there, the actual air temperatures are lower…green/lush terrain means higher dewpoints = lower highs. With the dome of heat struggling to get this far east, it also means weird clouds at various times all conspiring to knock a few degrees off the highs. Also this keeps lows a few degrees warmer as well.

Here is the satellite picture this AM…showing some of the features that should move on through. After the rain is done there will be partly cloudy skies, I’m also seeing on the early morning pictures another swath of smoke moving through the western Plains area that may be in our skies later this afternoon.

sat

Here is a look at radar showing the rain actually heaviest at the end of the system…as opposed to the beginning…

There is going to be a major re-alignment of the weather pattern this weekend as the heat shifts farther westwards and cooler air slides into the region. It may actually turn VERY nice around here. Take a look at the forecast off the EURO for KCI starting over the next 10 days…

ScreenHunter_02 Jun

Temperatures may struggle to 80° from Sunday on for awhile if this is close to reality…so it’s very possible we’ll start July on a VERY pleasant note in KC.

So something to look forward too later in the weekend and next week…what a change from 2012!

Joe

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