Joe’s Wx Blog: No Promises But…

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Another toasty day around the region as temperatures are again well into the 90s this afternoon with perhaps the hottest day on tap for Friday as highs should pop to 95-100° as we continue to dry out in the area. I played some evening golf yesterday and noticed one of the ponds at St Andrews really getting low. This one was pretty filled a few weeks ago, but the dry weather has taken a toll. Take a look!

We’re running about 4″ behind so far this year (officially for KC @ KCI)…but really after a wet spring and early summer things have dried out in the last month or so. Here are the deficits over the past 60 days…click on these images to make them more readable.

ScreenHunter_05 Jul. 18 13.05

Now check out the last 180 days (6 months)…

ScreenHunter_06 Jul. 18 13.12

So this really is more of a typical short term thing that we have going on at this point in time. With that said there is no doubt that there is an area from Jefferson/Leavenworth into NW Platte counties that certainly have a bigger issue than us in the metro. The latest drought does show an expansion of the “abnormally dry” category through parts of the area going from 7%-27% on the MO side

 

By the way…notice the numbers, especially on the MO map showing the changes from last year this week to the current situation…pretty darn dramatic.

Meanwhile on the KS side…here is the latest report…

 

No doubt though we certainly need some good soaking rainfall.

I dug up some stats today about the heat as we’re in (for now) a typical summer scenario in this part of the country. By the way, a LOT is being made of the east coast weather which is typical and frankly they too are supposed to be hot during this time of the year. In NYC their monthly temperature is running 4.5° above average so far…whereas our temperatures are running near average for the month so far.

As a matter of fact, including today we’ve had 14 days with highs 90° or above so far this year…which for whatever reason just doesn’t sound like that many to me. We average 36 over the course of the year. Last year through today we had 37 days at or above 90 including 10 days with highs 100°.

So where are we going from here. Well there will be opportunities for rainfall over the next 4 days but we’re going to have to work to get there I think. As I wrote about a couple of days ago despite some of the model forecasts, I wasn’t too thrilled by the set up for our next front due in SAT AM. At least for the rain chances on Friday night. The latest NAM keep the front to our north till Saturday when it slowly pushes southwards but never really gets to the KC metro area. This will be a tough call because the front should be somewhere in the region…maybe close to the MO-IA border area. Depending on the potential for residual clouds we may still be looking at a pretty toasty and humid day and perhaps heat index values near 100-105°. Then the question is whether or not we get widespread rainfall from additional storms that should form near the boundary and push towards the south or southeast. Frankly it’s too early to call because we’re going to have to rely on these various boundaries or outflows from the N MO storms to generate new thunderstorms. We’re not overly capped at all, so whatever boundary slides into the region should fire up new storms. Then by Sunday AM we’ll have a low-level jet poking at us which may offer us our “best” chance at seeing more widespread rainfall in the region.

Of course this leads to a temperature forecasting headache through the weekend. There is potential for SAT to be 90-95° while Sunday has the “potential” to only be in the 70s IF (a biggie) we have clouds/rain through most of the day.

We should get very steamy again next week, especially Tuesday before some additional chances of rain develop after that. So at least the chances are there…now what actually happens remains to be seen. I’m most confident about Sunday’s chances at this point.

That’s it for today, again I realize that the weekend is still an iffy forecast but that’s just eh nature of the beast at this point. More importantly it’s better than no chance at lass like last year.

Joe

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