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Joe’s Wx Blog: Plenty Of Chances For Rain

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A lot of rain talk on the blog today…or perhaps the better phrasing would be a lot of rain “chances” talk on the blog today with decent potential that many areas could see over 2″ of rain over the next week or so. Already today a good part of Douglas County saw 1-2″ of rain, even a 2.3″ total coming in from near Eudora, KS. Seems like, by looking at the real time rain reports that the amounts significantly dropped off once you got east of Edgerton Rd in W JOCO, KS.

The good news is that while many didn’t get much this AM, there will be more opportunities for the next several days…with perhaps the best chance of something more widespread coming tomorrow and will be keyed on whether or not a disturbance comes down in the NW flow from the Plains states and holds together long enough to give us a good shot of rain. The modelling will not handle the details well so it’s a matter of watching radar tomorrow AM and tracking what comes our way. It’s certainly no slam dunk though…

Here is the way the NAM portrays things over the next 84 hours…

One of the issues this disturbance will have perhaps is that there isn’t a strong low level jet flowing into the system as it moves to the SE. I would prefer that to be the case because the then the system will have an inflow of warm, moist air to maintain itself as it comes our way. So for our best chance of getting a significant rain out of this, I’d want that system to be here before 9AM tomorrow as opposed to afterwards when perhaps where dealing more with the scraps than anything else. Again NOT a slam dunk we get a lot from this set-up but at least the potential for 1″+ is there for some of us.

As we go farther up into the atmosphere, to around 18K feet or about the 500 mb level you can see the various areas of RED blobs, which represent areas of spin in the atmosphere or vorticity, being generated through the Plains states near the KC area. again the model will NOT handle these things well, the decay and generation of disturbances, but at least there is potential there.

By the way in the above animations 00Z is 7PM, 06Z is 1AM, 12Z is 7AM and 18Z is 1PM.

Here are some rainfall totals off the model data…1st the hi-res NAM model…

ScreenHunter_02 Jul. 20 12.43

Now the lower-res NAM…

ScreenHunter_03 Jul. 20 12.44

Here is the GFS model…

ScreenHunter_04 Jul. 20 12.47

All the totals are through into Tuesday 7PM. So all the models are in the 1-2″ camp. Here is the forecast over the next 7 days from the WPC with a nice bullseye of 4.5″+ in the area.

So all sorts of potential but the devil is in the details and there are lots of things that will depend on what happens the previous day. Boundaries move, temperatures fluctuate and wind fields change, all can alter total rainfall forecasts.

Finally a staffing note…this will be my last weekend shift for about a month or so. Due to a combination of my vacation time and MT’s annual vacation time, I’ll be shifting my schedule around to help cover other shifts. At this point I’m scheduled to be back on shift Labor Day weekend. This may change somewhat but that’s the way the schedule is laying out now. So I just wanted to give you a heads up. I’ll continue to update the blog every so often as weather conditions warrant but at least later next week, updates might be a bit fewer…we’ll see.

Have a great weekend and let’s hope for more widespread rain!

Joe

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