Joe’s Wx Blog: Where’s The Heat?

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Can’t really think of a lot to blog about this AM…but there are a few things I’d like to visit about and also post some longer-term forecasts showing potential rainfall through the Plains for you. Let’s start with the heat or the lack thereof. Last summer we hit 100° 20 times, including 19 through today’s day (the 5th). So far this year…0. It’s no secret that we’ve been cooler. I’ve mentioned a couple of times that I used 32% less energy cooling the house in July that last year…so that certainly saved me some money, and I’m guessing you’re in the same boat as well. So that’s good!

We’ve also been wetter in spots and hopefully you’ve saved a little money on the water bill. The rainfall though, as is typical for this part of the country has been feast or famine for the region. Some do OK for a week to 10 days while others get very little, then it might reverse itself. That’s not unusual for our summer time rainfall patterns, especially when we don’t get into the heart of these bigger t/storm complexes that roll our way. I’m not expecting that to change this week.

Here is the rainfall forecast off the EURO ensemble for this part of the country for the next week, through next Monday. There will be chances over the next few days, mainly during the AM hours…and there is potential for some to get another 1-2″ or so (which is close to average this month). Should mention most forecasters don’t have access to this product…and while the EURO is widely considered to be the superior model to the American GFS model, many forecasters can’t get this information readily. Like the GFS model, where the ensembles are typically better in the long-term than the single deterministic model that some treat as gospel (wrongly), the EURO ensembles are typically better than the operational model.

ScreenHunter_06 Aug. 05 08.20

Here is a look at the various GFS model runs that are completed every 6 hours…this show the 16 models that make up the ensemble forecast…through 1AM NEXT Monday morning…

ScreenHunter_09 Aug. 05 08.30

and finally compare that to the “operational” model that forecasters live and die with…

ScreenHunter_08 Aug. 05 08.29

OK so basically they all show a good swath of rainfall through the Plains over the next week. The problem is that the models will NOT be able to forecast with confidence exactly where the best rains will be. These areas will vary and be determined but each individual day’s weather and how that particular weather scenario will alter the next day’s forecast…again NO model is good with these types of situations.

So what is a forecaster to do? Basically I try to then look and see if something fundamental in the pattern is undergoing any significant changes and for that I really see no real changes other than minor day to day undulations in the flow. So at this point I still see us always on the periphery of the storms cores and getting rain like what happened yesterday…where some can sneak in 1″ or so while others get a few drops.

The good news about all this is that the heat will continue to be a real non-factor (aside from typical August humidity) for the next 10+ days…here is the EURO forecast for high temperature anomalies (in degrees C) for the next 10 days…

ScreenHunter_07 Aug. 05 08.25

That is NOT a warm look at all…and the longer we go through August, the tougher it gets to hit 100° in KC…these maps would take us through the middle of the month. For as hot as last year was…the last 100° was on the 7th of August. we did hit 99° on the 30th last year, right before the rains from Isaac hit the region.

That’s it for today. I’ll be doing the evening shifts for the next 2 weeks as MT takes his usual summer vacation. So I’ll see you tonight on FOX 4!

Joe

 

 

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