Joe’s Wx Blog: Good Rains Nearby

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I’ve been targeting NW and NC MO for the last 24 hours to get some decent rainfall and Mother Nature is delivering this morning with a large area of soaking rainfall moving through that part of the Show Me State. It’s not too heavy…radar is not overly dramatic with intensity, so it’s just a nice soaking rain. Some areas up there have already had close to 1/2″+ or so and more is on the way this AM. Here is a look at the radar from Pleasant Hill and you can see the progress of the rain.

 

Now the question is can any of this sneak into the KC Metro area? At this point as the clouds start to really increase this AM, keeping our temperatures in the 70s once again today it’s possible, especially towards lunch for areas north of I-70. More importantly this rain cooled air will generate some boundaries today and potentially there could be some redevelopment tonight of some showers/storms that could also affect us into tomorrow AM. I’m not too thrilled at the prospects for widespread rain today, and at this point I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans because some of the rain above may weaken/break-up as it approaches the KC area…but there will at least be a chance as the late AM moves along.

 

Here is a look at the HRRR model which has done a decent+ job lately of showing the evolution of our rain chances…this is a look at future radar for 2PM today.

As everything comes together over the next couple of days, the weekend is shaping up to be very nice as well and as we head into next week, we’ll challenge the fact that we’ve yet to hit 90° this month so far (24 straight days as a matter of fact). While nothing extreme is expected we will be heating back to average and perhaps even a bit above average later next week. It’s also a very dry pattern too for the region so a heads up about that. Here is a look at the EURO model showing the forecasted temperatures and the rainfall for the next 10 days. Click on that image to make it larger.

ScreenHunter_01 Aug. 15 09.04

That’s it for today…tomorrow we may talk a bit about the tropics and Hurricane season. Erin was born today in the far eastern Atlantic and there is activity heading towards the Gulf of Mexico that bears watching for weekend development.

 

Joe

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