Joe’s Weather Blog: A Freeze! + Record Low? + A Storm

ScreenHunter_03 Mar. 14 14.50

Noticed some of my yard was starting to dry out again…rainfall lately has been pretty sparse, at least anything significant. These breezy bright days allow the soil moisture to evaporate a little bit more readily. What we need is a good soaking rain, and while nothing like that will happen for another few days, there is at least going to be an opportunity for something decent next week.

On the subject of dryness, areas to the NE of KC are still suffering the worst with “severe” drought conditions affecting most of north-central MO. Here is the latest drought update.

 

The NE and north-central part of MO is still having a rough go of things. Since June 1st Chillicothe has had a little more than 11″ of rainfall…more than 8″ below average for them. Here in KC we’ve had more than 15″ which is still about 5″ below average.

Hopefully next week some beneficial rain will help the cause. More on that potential in a few minutes…1st though is the potential for a hard freeze (28° or below) to occur tonight. Freeze Warnings are in effect for later tonight into FRI AM. Temperatures should drop into the 25-30° range for many and this will effectively end the pollen season for the area. Of course, you may still have issues and wind blown pollens move into the region over the next several weeks. Here is the hi-res model for temperatures tomorrow AM.

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So odds are tomorrow AM (FRI) will be the coldest morning we’ve seen so far this fall. Also there is the potential for tying a record low and/or breaking the record on FRI AM. The record tomorrow is 28° set in 1994.

The weekend forecast looks fine…I did trim highs a few degrees and for the tailgaters out there on Sunday…it will be chilly. Probably 30-35° just after daybreak Sunday but a nice turnaround in the afternoon with readings in the 60s by late Sunday.

Then there is the matter of what to do with our next potential weather-maker next week. The origins of the storm are still towards the west of the Aleutian Islands off the coast of Alaska. Here is the afternoon water vapor shot from the N Pacific Ocean!

SAT

That piece of energy will go through various transitions as it moves through the N Pacific and eventually into NW Canada. Take a look at how the GFS is handling this piece of energy. Initially it’s not on the model maps but when Sunday arrives you’ll see it moving through the western reaches of Canada…then down into the western part of the country.

 

Notice how it intensifies near Salt Lake City…then drops into the 4 corners area and eventually swings out through the Plains. There are still many questions about the location and the timing of everything. One of the tougher things to figure out is in addition to the storm, there will be an impressively COLD airmass that is going to settle into the northern part of the country later in the weekend as well. Take a look at these forecasted temperatures off the GFS model for TUES AM…pay attention to the contrast…from the single digits in the N Rockies to near 70°+ in parts of the Plains and the southern Plains area.

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As usual click on those images to make them more readable!

If you look closely into the KC area…you can make out the major change in temperature across our local area. The EURO model has the front slightly farther south keeping us in the cooler air for awhile on TUE and the Lakes area is warmer. Obviously it’s tough to try and figure out the position of this colder airmass from 5 days away, when potentially it’s bisecting the region. Here is the EURO model for TUE AM.

 

Again you can see the differences in the placement of the 2 battling airmasses…EURO colder for KC while the GFS is warmer.

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So Tuesday is a tough nut to figure…it could actually be relatively OK in the AM with sharply falling PM temperatures. At some point though we’re going to deal with at least some of that cold air in the northern US…and odds favor that for WED into THU unless things slow down even more. Remember though last weekend my advice for parents was to think about Halloween being rather chilly. That advice is still valid 4 days later. Let’s see how things evolve over the next few days with this next storm.

Have a great Thursday and I’ll update the blog again tomorrow afternoon.

BTW…if you didn’t read yesterday’s blog…we’re aware of a commenting issue with Firefox when you’re using twitter or FB to log in. It seems IE works better at this point. WordPress (our blog platform) is aware of the issue.

Joe

 

 

 

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