Joe’s Weather Blog: Storm Gets It’s Act Together

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All sorts of interesting things on this AM’s satellite and weather map. A developing cold front to the north of the area…a warm front to the south of KC, marked by some dense fog across SE KS that is moving northwards as I type this. We also have a developing surface low in the western Plains states which is an indication that our upper-level storm is starting to influence the weather across the Plains states.

So let’s start with the fog/low cloud potential. One of the better ways of seeing the development and especially of fog and low clouds is by using the fog/low cloud product on a satellite loop. It’s a “special” channel on a broad array of satellite products available to us. I wish our proved would give this to us readily so we can show you with our graphic computer at work, but they don’t. So take a look at the animation. Click on the image and it will zoom in for you.

The product itself is actually addition by subtraction. It uses two other satellite “channels” and subtracts one from another and the end result is the following image. It however becomes useless as the sun starts to shine…that’s when we start using the “visible” channel of the weather satellites.

ScreenHunter_07 Oct. 28 07.48

IF you look to the south…you can see the area in SE KS…and looping that image you can definitely see the northward progress. I would expect at least some areas to become cloud covered this AM south of the metro…and maybe even closer to KC proper…these lower clouds/fog should then “mix out” and skies should be mostly sunny this afternoon. It better be because if not, there is no way we’ll make the mid-upper 60s this afternoon which is my forecast.

Another way of seeing what’s going on is by looking at the latest surface map. Here is the map at 7AM showing what’s going on.

sfc

That moisture from the south will continue to move north towards the area of low pressure in the western Plains all because of a southerly air flow. This will be a key in getting storms to fire up later tonight across central/eastern KS. Those storms should then roll towards W MO. We’ll just have to see how things come together towards 12AM TUE and see how much rainfall we can get from this. Odds favor some heavy totals (1-2+”) in parts of the area and various models have targeted this area for the heaviest rainfall as I’ve talked about before. It continues to look like the highest chances of rain will be after 12AM through about 10AM TUE…then after that the rain may be more “showery” or drizzly for awhile.

Here is just one forecast based off the hi-res NAM model…you can compare it to the blog of the same “type” of forecast yesterday.

ScreenHunter_08 Oct. 28 08.06

Our main upper level storm is still located across the western part of the country. Here is it’s position this AM from NEXLAB.

Another thing to notice about the above image is the way the air aloft (around 18,000′) is “fanning out” through the Plains states. This is called divergence and will also help enhance the developing t/storms later tonight. This helps to create more rising air as the air aloft fans out, the air below rises to replace the “evacuated” air. This creates broad-scale lift and in combination with some of the stuff I wrote about previously…moisture surging from the south…a low level jet poking right towards KC (written about over the weekend)…it’s a recipe for heavy rainfall.

You can follow the path of the “upper level” storm by looking at the NAM model for the next 3 1/2 days…notice how the storm moves well NW of the metro into the N Plains states.

Now let’s work back down through the atmosphere to the surface…and see how the rain will blossom through the central Plain states overnight tonight and for the next few days.

Again notice that there will be plenty of dry hours I think over the next several days…so it won’t be a continuous rain. For those NOT used to looking at the animations above…from a timing perspective…12Z is 7AM…18Z is 1PM…00Z is 7PM and 6Z is 1AM.

By the way, with the upper level storm wrapping up across the N Plains…it will also wrap in the coldest of the air…so that we just sort of get a glancing blow from this. Really a seasonable shot of cooler weather for Halloween before we should moderate nicely again into next weekend especially Sunday.

That’s about it for this AM…if need be I’ll update the blog this afternoon should there be any major change in thoughts needed for the next 5 days. Have a great Monday and try and do some outdoor chores today with the sunshine.

Joe

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