As of the noon hour the winds are gusting to about 30 MPH and with cirrus clouds starting to filter out the sun, I guess we can call it a blustery day in the region. Temperatures are in the mid-upper 50s as I type this and we should end up with highs near 60° before the days is done. Hopefully by now you’re figured out that we set our clocks back one hour last night. For us weather lovers that means we get our newest computer models one hour earlier till the end of CST. So there’s that.
Let’s start with today. If you remember the last blog dealt with the whys of the wind that was going to be blowing this afternoon through tomorrow morning. The winds should drop off nicely in the afternoon hours Monday. Even tonight the winds just above the ground are forecasted to be close to 55-65 MPH. Here is a look at the 925 mb winds or a couple of thousand feet off the ground courtesy of NEXLAB
The wind speeds are in knots.
These strong winds just above the surface will drop off and move towards the NE tomorrow at lunch.
So then we focus on the storm to be. Tomorrow it will help to gradually increase the moisture at around 5000 feet or so. We strip away the upper level moisture as this happens so odds do not favor any showers tomorrow in the KC area ahead of the storm that will start affecting us more directly on Tuesday.
That storm is a combination of a bunch of Pacific energy that will help to carve out a broad dip in the jetstream called a trough on Monday across the western 1/3rd of the country. Here is the forecast map for 18,000 ft showing the 500 mb flow…you can see the dip out to the west…and us in SW flow aloft.
This trough will help to bring milder air into the region tomorrow and Tuesday and as the dip gets closer on TUE into WED AM the rain will be on the increase in the area.
Right now it looks like the “peak” of the storm should be later TUE into WED early AM with the storm moving away WED AM and clearing moving in by WED PM. The NAM shows the rough idea on the timing of the rain for us.
For those unfamiliar with looking at the moving blue blobs…that represents precipitation. For the most part it’s rain but look for the 540 solid red line moving as well. That is roughly the rain/snow line. Notice how that line and the blue precipitation blogs sort of coincide across the upper Midwest. There is the potential of an accumulating snow up there depending on how things set up…maybe not a large area but a stripe of accumulating snows are possible somewhere up there.
For us the main thing will be another significant rain that is going to affect the region. The GFS gives us widespread 3/4-2.5″…with the I-35 corridor in a bulls-eye.
The NAM model has the same concept as well…again with the I-35 corridor the target.
So I think you get the idea. Don’t be surprised considering how saturated the soils are now that Flash Flood watches/warnings may be needed during this event.
I mentioned last week that this system coming in wouldn’t have all the moisture that the previous one did that generated 2-5″ of rain in the region. That may be true in the end, especially in the lower part of the atmosphere (our surface dewpoints will “only” be in the 50s as opposed to the 60s last week) but there will still be a lot of mid-upper level moisture with this and some of it will come from a tropical storm in the eastern Pacific named Sonia.
You can see it off the coast of Baja California.
That mid-upper level moisture will stream into the leading edge of the trough that I showed you in the above maps and that is illustrated with the following map showing the “precipitable water” off the NAM model. This is valid for Tuesday
So between that moisture and the trough, there is a strong set-up for another moderate to heavy rainfall event through the area. This won’t be a 3 day storm…but a more typical 24-36 hour storm. Here are the forecasted storm totals off our hi-res EURO model.
About the same as the others…so there is excellent agreement with the storm potential here.
Colder air will wrap in behind the storm on WED rapidly clearing things out. Temperatures just after midnight WED AM may start in the 50s but WED PM, even with sunshine may only be in the 45-50° range. You can get an idea of the 20-25° drop in the temperatures across the front by looking at this map from the NAM model showing temperatures at Midnight early WED AM. Notice the contrast through the Plains…from the 55-60° in MO to the 30-35° in W KS. Click on that image to make it larger.
That’s it for today. Have a great Sunday and let’s hope the 2nd half of the game is better than the 1st half. I was even debating taking the Bills in our Sunday AM show NFL picks but I just couldn’t given their quarterback situation. This game has bothered me all week long and I see it was for good reason.