Joe’s Weather Blog: Cold Now/Colder Next Week?

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No doubt one of our colder mornings out there for this date (11/12) that we’ve seen ovr the last 100+ years. So far the lowest we’ve been is 14° officially for KC (could have dropped another degree or two in between hours). This makes this morning the coldest since 1986 (8°) and in the top 5 of the coldest for the date (11/12). The record low for the date is 6° set back in 1911 (see yesterday’s blog about the Blue Norther of 1911).

Skies are nice and clear and the air pressure is really high this AM…30.84″ and may go up a bit more as the day moves along with the core of the area of High pressure moving right on top of us during the afternoon.

The map above is the surface map. It shows the pressure patterns at the ground. The black lines are lines of equal pressure called isobars. You’ll notice the lines are more tightly spaced in the TN valley area…that’s where the wind is…the lines are now MUCH farther apart around our next of the winds…that indicates little to no pressure gradient and a lighter wind regime. The intense pressure rise from yesterday at this time (30.18″) is over with and overnight tonight the pressures will start to fall again as the HIGH starts to move towards the east of the region and we get into return flow. This means a moderating trend in the temperatures as S/SW winds take over. It also means a fast fall in temperatures tonight with a leveling off process tomorrow early AM.

I want to talk about the possibilities for next week today. The EURO model in particular has been honking it’s horn about another outbreak of cold weather with a significant storm moving through the Plains states into the Great Lakes region. The GFS hasn’t been on board with that notion until early this AM. The bottom line is that another fast moving shot of cold weather for NOV is becoming possible, but still not definite.

The system in question is still way out towards Russia, south of Siberia.  Take a look at the water vapor satellite pictures from the N Pacific. It is NOT the system that is all wrapped up in the NE Pacific heading towards British Columbia. These images are from Rutgers University

If you look at the far left side of the images you can see the moisture moving through the Bering Sea separating Alaska and Russia. The storm is actually west of there and will towards E AK by later Thursday then dive into Western Canada over the weekend. The energy is still some 4000 miles away from the Plains so obviously a lot could change with this but it’s something that I’m tracking.

Take a look at the anomalies at 5000 ft from last night at 6PM with the cold airmass building through the Plains…

ScreenHunter_04 Nov. 12 08.22

The scale is in °C. So every 10°C=18°F. The airmass above us is roughly 18-25°F below average at that level. Actually that is translating to what’s happening at the ground very well today. Now take a look at what MAY happen next week. This next map is valid for 1 week from today…on Tuesday the 19th.

ScreenHunter_05 Nov. 12 08.24

that core would be 15-20°C  below average or some 25-35°F below average so even colder than the airmass on top of us this AM.

So let’s look at some approximate morning lows today…

ScreenHunter_06 Nov. 12 08.32

Click on that image to make it larger…there are some near 0° temperatures in there in SW MN!

Take a look at the EURO forecast for the next 10 days in terms of temperatures…

ScreenHunter_03 Nov

You can see how we moderate and warm up into the weekend…but then drop off the cliff again next week! The transition day would be Monday if this even happens like the EURO portrays. Take a look at what it thinks things will be like next MON AM…

MON

So the front is through the area and on the back side there may be a band of snow or some sort of mix moving to the NE very rapidly and clipping part of the viewing area.

Just to emphasis this is a LONG ways off and may not happen to this degree or even at all…but since the purpose of the blog is to talk about things way into the future I thought I’d mention it at least just so that you’re aware of the potential.

One last note…the devastation in the Philippines continues to grab headlines and will do so for quite some time. Yesterday the American Red Cross mistakenly sent out a picture showing how Haiyan would compare to the size of the United States.. Most meteorologists that looked carefully could see that it was scaled incorrectly. They later sent out this tweet.

So if there is a picture filling up your FB/Twitter timelines showing a storm covering the whole country and connecting it to the Typhoon that hit the Philippines…it’s wrong.

With that said they are one of the many ways you can help the people there. Here is a link for the Red Cross

 

 

Dress warmly for the next couple of days…but today will be the coldest day of the week!

Joe

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