Joe’s Weather Blog: Late Week Cold Surge Likely

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While our weather is tranquil, except for the gusty winds, folks to the east of the KC area from Illinois through the OH Valley are under the gun with the potential of tornadic storms today. Already a large destructive tornado has ripped through East Peoria, IL and the storms that are forming, as this radar image shows from the corn belt are rotating like crazy.

This is regional radar from the SPC (Storm Prediction Center). Many of the storms are rotating within minutes after forming. They are moving at 50-60 MPH and are nearly impossible to keep up with from a chaser/spotter standpoint.

A rare for November (and for that matter 2013) HIGH risk of storms is out for this region…and the storms will continue to try and rotate for the rest of the day.

This is all part of the same storm system that blew through our region last night and this AM. For us the biggest effects have been the wind with the storms last night staying across N MO. There was one storm in particular that was catching my eye during the evening. You may not have realized it, but N MO did have some shear to allow the storms to try and rotate as well. One in particular was spinning like a top and one of our viewers/weather contributors was chasing the storm up towards the Iatan Power plant near Weston. He was looking up towards the north and he caught what may have well been a funnel cloud or perhaps some very low scud. Another chaser did in fact report a funnel cloud with this cell about 5 minutes after the picture was taken.

Courtesy of Mark Schierholz

Here is another picture from the same storm…

Courtesy of Shane Kirk

Something was going on with that cell. On radar there was an impressive rotational couplet showing up. It wasn’t very tight but it was definitely there. Kudos the our local NWS in Pleasant Hill for NOT issuing a Tornado warning for the storm. They were watching it carefully though and I had my tie on ready to go if they would’ve pulled the trigger. Sometimes the warnings that are NOT issued should count for accuracy as well…props to the NWS. The storm did produce some hail, perhaps to quarter size and maybe some wind gusts to 60 MPH…but the severe weather reports for our region were few and far between.

Today though is a different story. Here some video from a WMBD-TV reporter showing the destruction in E Peoria around Washington, IL.

Damage reports are also now coming in from Centralia, IL. I used to live there back in the day when I was first starting in the business in the 1980s

A lot of tornado warnings (doesn’t mean all these counties are being hit by tornados though…means that the warned cells MAY produce tornados. There is also a LOT of real estate through the OH Valley under a Tornado Watch.

OK now let’s move along to our weather again. Quiet through Tuesday…temperatures near seasonable levels with highs well into the 50s Monday and Tuesday. As the flow of moisture starts to return to the region early WED AM there should be at least some scattered showers in the region to start the day.

As this is ongoing some very cold air will be building across NW Canada and will ben oozing through the N Rockies and into the N Plains by later WED PM. From there it’s just a matter of when, not if, it gets to KC. There are some timing differences between the models in the ETA of the coldest of the air…models bring it in from early THU to later THU…but it does appear as if THU is going to be the transitional weather weather to a colder regime through the weekend.

Now about the wintery aspect of this…there is going to be an upper level storm develop which is connected to some energy in the Pacific Ocean. Depending on how this future upper level storm (which may well cut-off in the SW part of the country..somewhere) interacts with the cold shallow air moving into the region later in the week and through the weekend will determine our wintry weather chances. Right now I’m not going to jump on any particular model solution for this part of the forecast. Be aware though that FRI looks like a miserable weather day and the weekend looks A LOT colder than the weather we’re enjoying right now (despite the winds this weekend).

The Canadian model suggests some sort of rain>sleet>snow event int he region and especially on the KS side through western KS. The GFS model has a very cold rain or rain>sleet scenario in the area on Friday and our EURO model has some light snow here on Saturday. So a variety of things to watch for the next several days. Not unusual to see these discrepancies given the handling of a potential cut-off low in the SW part of the country.

That’s it for today, in the hour it’s taken to write this blog, the NWS has issued more tornado warnings out east. So far today over tornado almost 112 warnings and at least 75+ reports of tornados. (updated @ 5PM)

More on the future shot of cold weather ahead during the week.

Joe

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