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Joe’s Weather Blog: Cold Through Thursday AM + Winter Forecast

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In case you didn’t read the blog yesterday, I will be issuing my 2013-2014 Winter forecast tomorrow morning before noon. It will be a couple of simple graphics and no huge write-up. If you’ve been reading the blogs over the last few weeks I’ve written 1000s of words about some of the things I look at. So basically I’ll predict the snowfall (in a 4″ range this year) and the coldest low of the season. I may dabble in breaking down the months as well in terms of above and below average temperatures and precipitation. There should also be some snow climatology as well.

It seems like a good time to do it, because aside from the temperature swings moving through and another blast of cold weather later Tuesday into Wednesday there really is not a lot happening around these parts for about a week or so. I do expect to at least see some moderation of the temperatures later in the week and into the weekend. There may be some light showers in the area NEXT Sunday…so we’ll keep an eye on that. I’m listening to the guys on Sports Radio 810 now as I type this and they’re hoping for a lot of wind for the big game on Sunday since the wind may have played a role in Denver’s “issues” last night…at this point I just don’t see it.

The cold shot of air that is going to rush through the region later tomorrow and Wednesday is actually colder aloft that the airmass that was with us over the weekend. I talked about that in the weekend weather blogs. Forecast soundings off the NAM model suggest highs on Wednesday may struggle to get to 25°. We should drop off then start to level off WED night into THU AM as south winds quickly move back into the area setting the stage for highs on Thanksgiving to be 40-45°. Skies should be partly cloudy for the holiday.

IF you’re traveling here in the Midwest, there should be any issues around the area. Different story for the eastern part of the country as the weather in the SE will head downhill later tomorrow and the NE has issues tomorrow night through Wednesday. Here is the NAM model showing the Nor’easter developing for that part of the country. There will be numerous flight delays, if not outright cancellations affecting all the major NE airports including the NYC area, Boston and Washington area airports. Aside from the rain issues, the wind will be a big issue for the event itself.

Conditions will improve Thursday AM for the NE however I’m wondering about the effects of the wind on the Thanksgiving Parade. I’m not sure of the wind limits for the floats but it will be windy to say the least!

 

On the map above…for time reference…12Z is 6AM/18Z is Noon/00Z is 6PM/06Z is 12AM.

Regardless this will be a heavy precip producer and heavy snow maker in the interior sections of the NE.

 

Finally a note about where the temperatures are going into DEC. My feeling, and I’ll talk more about this tomorrow is that the month is going to be wild and crazy for the central and eastern US. I think another nasty shot of cold weather is going to be moving into the area at some point later during the 1st week of DEC. One again we’re seeing the tell tale signs as bitterly cold air will be building up across western Canada and the Yukon regions…it will just be a matter of time before the air is released into the US on a trajectory that should bring it to us in some form.

ScreenHunter_39 Nov. 25 10.16

The map above (click and enlarge) shows the anomalies at about 5000′ up or the 850 mb level in the atmosphere. Notice the intense cold weather in SW Canada and the warmth near and west of AK…we’ve seen this repeatedly over the last month or so…and inevitably that cold air gets to us.

Something to think about…

Joe

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