Joe’s Weather Blog: T Minus 0 Days

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10PM update…

The new data is not very impressive at all for KC to get anysnow on Thursday night or Friday. Still cold just very dry.

The opportunity for snow is still there on Sunday… More on that tomorrow.

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Well this is it..after close to 10 days of warning…it’s finally it…the last decent day (from a temperature standpoint) for the region. Beginning tomorrow the temperatures head downhill. Then on Thursday it get’s really cold and stays that way through early next week. There are some signs that moderation in the weather will begin on the 12th…so essentially this will be a 1 week dip into true winter. I’m not 100% convinced what happens after the 12th but it appears right now that we’ll moderate for a bit as the cold air reloads in Canada. This creates real problems in the model data because it will be rather chilly there, with moderation in the states…this would favor a zonal west to east pattern with embedded weaker waves.

These waves, should one be stronger, with then buckle the jetstream and allow the colder air to penetrate the country somewhere. It’s a situation where a hoped for mid-month warm-up could be cut-short rather quickly by a storm and then more cold weather…anyway something to think about over the next 7 days.

I probably should mention that I’m now on vacation for the next 10 days or so…we’re staying here so I’ll be updating the blog daily and @fox4wx on Twitter as well…so be sure to check in almost daily before lunch for blog updates…as long as there is something to write about with our weather…I’ll crank out some blog updates for you. Now the issue is will I just be blogging about the cold…or will there be any snow to talk about.

I mentioned on the air last night that I would be mildly surprised IF we didn’t get 3-6″ of snow out of this pattern by the middle of the month. Right now the data barely supports that notion but I’m still not going to waver from that thought process. There are rumors of some snow, including one opportunity Thursday night into Friday for KC with perhaps a better chance on Sunday. At this point neither system looks “overly” impressive although the one on Sunday bears closer watching. The one THU night may be a deal where just a little snow creates some issues for the AM commute on Friday and should things pan out I could see how some areas from KC southwards can see about 1″ of snow…with more from Sedalia to Clinton to Pleasanton and southwards.

That Sunday potential system will be the one the drags the final big chunk of cold weather into the region early next week, before the moderation starts I think. In a sense we’re getting waves of cold. The first comes in later tonight into tomorrow AM. If anything has changed with the data it’s a slower movement to the front coming in…so that we’ll probably have some sort of midnight high in the 40s WED AM, before the temperatures drop into the 30s for most of Wednesday. Here is the forecast map for tomorrow @ 6AM

sfc

Click on the image above to make it larger and more readable…the dashed RED lines are the temperatures.

The cold air now is draining into the N Rockies…take a look a the 8AM temperatures which are denoted in RED.

Temperatures drop off more across the border with near 0° weather common in W Canada. That will essentially be the first chunk of air that moves in and it will modify as it moves into the Plains. Then reinforcing cold will move in on THU and the last shot of cold will move in on Monday (perhaps the deepest cold of the waves moving through).

I think this forecast of the 6-10 day temperatures says it all from CPC…

Now let’s talk a bit more about the snow scenario. Very tricky for the KC area…there will be a weak wave coming out of the SW part of the country. The problem is the wave will be weakening as it moves our way and will be embedded in a very fast flow aloft…so it will be flying through. Tale a look at the forecast for 18,000 feet (500 mbs) as we look for areas of “vorticity” (the tendency of the air aloft to spin/rotate).

500

These are sneaky events for us, where the wave flies through and creates lift in the atmosphere. This combined with the colder airmass will help the clouds create snow…just how much is what is tough to figure out. As I mentioned about I could see some parts of the KC area, from I-35 southeastwards seeing about 1″ if things “worked” out. This would create issues for the FRI AM commute.

Areas farther south of KC towards the I-44 corridor will have more of a headache with the potential of glazing due to sleet or freezing rain THU PM into early FRI then backside snow of decent significance on Friday. May be VERY messy down there through central and northern AR into NE OK. Areas from Springfield to Branson into the Ozarks will have some real problems with the current set-up. Just north of the ice scenarios would be heavier snowfall for the areas highlighted above…from Sedalia to Clinton to Pleasanton…where the potential of some 2-4″+ totals are increasing Thursday night into Friday AM…this must be watched! The totals should trail off the farther NW you get.

That’s it for now…I may update the blog later today with some new data…I’m trying to do all my outdoor chores today before the cold air hits…

Joe

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