Joe’s Weather Blog: Another Arctic Blast Coming

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Good morning and thanks for reading the weather blog today! Hopefully you’re starting to recover a little bit from Christmas. Our weather for the next several days will be mild to very mild before another significant but not unusual for December cold front moves through the region Saturday evening into Sunday morning. This will usher in another “cold slap in the face” shot of cold weather that will again capture your attention, especially after what may be a VERY mild Saturday.

The next 5-7 days will feature predominantly dry weather as well so no significant precipitation is expected. There may be some flurries around on Sunday as the cold air squeezes out the atmosphere pf moisture during the day…but aside from that there are no major storms threatening through the weekend…so for the travelers out there, whether by plane or car through the Midwest…you should be OK…although IF you’re heading northbound on Sunday…it will be getting colder and colder.

I was VERY aggressive in my temperature forecast for the next few days last night. Certainly about 5-15° warmer than another other forecast out there for the KC area. I think temperatures today will be somewhere between 45-50°…then near 50° tomorrow and we could make a run well into the 55-60° range on Saturday ahead of the front. I’m basing these forecast highs on the fact that the air just above the surface will be very mild, especially on Saturday…and with enough wind today and Saturday we could “mix’ that air to the surface. It won’t take much wind to do it…so IF we get wind gusts to 25 MPH during the afternoon on both days…I have a shot at this happening. IF those winds don’t materialize I may end up being totally wrong. Let’s see what happens. The trick perhaps tomorrow is with the snow melt happening today…will there be fog/low clouds to mess me up a bit.

This will all come to a screeching end though on Sunday AM as more nasty cold air moves into the region. This arctic attack will be with us through the early part of next week.Take a look at the air heading our way later Saturday into Sunday. The following maps are the forecast temperatures around 3000-4000′ feet up…you can see the colder air barreling down the Plains and moving through…the 1st map if for 6PM Saturday and the 2nd map is for 6AM Sunday…(add 12 hours to those maps IF you read this blog AFTER 9PM tonight when the maps get updated).

 

 

By the way, the temperatures displayed on the above maps are in dashed lines…and are in °C. So the 0° line represents 32°F…the -10° line is 18°F and the -20° line is 4°F. Those numbers are just above the surface as mentioned. Temperatures should be sub-zero at the surface from I-80 and northwards and for us…we may be 15-20° Sunday AM and just sort of wallow in the teens and lower 20s with single digit wind chills through out the day on Sunday…a marked change from Saturday when a run well into the 50s is what I’m forecasting.

Then we may moderate a bit before we get colder again. With all these transitions going on…the pattern aloft at this point is not supportive of a significant storm system…but with that said there is some energy that I’m watching out in the pacific Ocean that could turn into something interesting later next week (although we may be in the process of losing the cold air by then). Here is a look at the features int eh Pacific Ocean via the water vapor images from Rutgers University

 

So which feature am I watching the most for us?  It’s NOT the swirl off Hawaii…and it’s NOT the swirl to the SW of the Aleutian Islands, both impressive in their own rights…it’s actually the smaller swirl off between CA and the Aleutians that  you almost have to squint to make out.

This smallish feature will come ashore Friday night and drop southwards through CA and eventually cutoff in the Baja CA area…from there it may wallow around a bit before ejecting out somewhere later next week. The problem is I’m NOT confident where it ejects out from this far out…and with the northern jetstream continuously being thrust our way…this thing may very well be shunted well south of the KC area and NOT really effect the weather here…but it really is about the only thing to watch right now.

That’s it for today…have a great Thursday!

Joe

 

 

 

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