Joe’s Weather Blog: Ups, Downs, and Inbetweens

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I actually was looking at some of the late winter season snowstorms from last year…just to see what a real storm looks like. It seems like it’s been awhile since we’ve had a significant shot of moisture, whether it be rain or snow in the area. As a matter of fact after a wet October…the last time we’ve had more than 1/2″ precipitation was back on November 5th. More than 2 months ago…and the system that’s affecting us today certainly won’t do the trick…and I don’t see anything all that noteworthy coming up for the next 7 days or so…so that will take us through the middle of January.

The weather pattern next week will be characterized by various ups and downs. the good news is before we get there we’re going to warm up this weekend with highs Saturday between 40-45° and highs on Sunday near 55° (with a lot of wind).

There will be a couple of stronger fronts that will move through the region over the next week or so…one will come on Tuesday and another on Thursday. The main push of the coldest air is going to be directed though more towards the Lakes region as well as the NE part of the country. Yes we will see colder air, but it won’t be like what we’ve experienced this winter so far. It seems that for the next 7-10 days we’re going to be on the dividing line between getting really cold and getting really warm. That means temperatures will be tough to figure out and rather changeable from next week and next weekend.

So with that said…let’s talk about the weather elsewhere…for example let’s head down towards south FL where a small storm last night created a major headache for Palm Beach county.

It happened fast and was torrential. I’ve seen totals exceeding 22″. It appears to be a storm that developed along some sort of boundary (a likely warm front) and just sat in essentially one place for hours. After a while a “meso-low” formed which is a small scale rotation. Both factors contributed to the enormous and unexpected heavy rainfall that was very focused. Here is a look at the radar loop showing the storm forming from the NWS in Miami.

Meanwhile out to the west it’s really dry and at this point there is little hope for the next 10 days of that changing with any significance. 2013 was already the driest year int eh state’s recorded weather history and at least so far 2014 is not starting off on a good note as far as that goes. Here is a look at how that area has fared over the past 2 years. The following graphic represents the percentage of average precipitation. You can see a lot of red in CA…that’s 25-50% of their average amounts.

This also is a problem in the mountainous regions where a lack of snowfall means less water int eh reservoirs down the road. Look at how the water in the snowpack is shaping up…this image is through 1/1/2014.

See all those red dots…not good for the mountains. less snowpack…less water.

That’s it for today…boring in a way I know…

Joe

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1 Comment

  • Patrick Trudel (@sedsinkc)

    If the precip does not increase in Cali before onset of the dry season, the drought situation out there is going to become huge news as water for agriculture in the Central Valley and elsewhere may need to be restricted, creating higher prices for produce nationwide. Meanwhile, KC has now officially had 3 consecutive years of below average precipitation. History over the past 50 years suggests odds of a 4th consecutive below average year are quite low, i.e. that has not happened since before 1965.