Joe’s Weather Blog: Nuisance+ Snows Then Something Bigger?

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4PM Update:

Good afternoon…temperatures are in the mid-upper 40s in the region and while cloudy we avoided the weather issues that N MO dealt with this morning.

The data today is still supporting what I wrote about this morning. The cold front which will be the beginning of the weather changes around here over the next several weeks is moving towards the KC area…the air behind the front as you can see from the 3PM weather map is not remarkably cold by any stretch…basically just a typical January front moving into the area. Here is the map showing the temperatures in RED.

sfc

That front will usher in the cold air…then later tonight a disturbance will come out through the Plains states in the mid levels of the atmosphere and start to set of precip into the cold air. Whatever falls will be light…BUT there are implications to the AM rush with this as temperatures will be around 20-23°. Roads MAY be impacted in the AM by this IF it pans out…something to keep in mind and to watch for. It won’t be a heavy type thing…but we’ve seen numerous occasions here where just a pinch of snow can create issues in the region. There is the potential for 1-2″ farther north into N MO.  Temperatures tomorrow should hold in the 20s with lots of gray.

In terms of how things play out later Friday evening into Saturday AM…everything looks about the same. This won’t be a huge storm and actually will be reminiscent of where we’ve been so far this winter. Once again there should be southern cutoff in the Metro or close to it

Capture

As a result of all this a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for most of the region through Saturday…

Capture

Next week still looks to be the opportunity for our 1st “real” winter storm on a more widespread basis which we’ll get into more over the next couple of days. Again as I mentioned I’m trying to see the trees in front of me as opposed to the forest in the distance. With that said I can see a morning or two, next WED or THU where we go sub-zero again assuming skies are clear and we have decent snowcover in the area.

Let’s pay attention to tomorrow AM…

JL

Things are in the process of getting more active across the western 2/3rd of the country and this will continue for the next couple of weeks. Snows or the rumors of wintry weather and plenty of cold air are going to be highlights of the forecast and after what seemed to be weeks of minor to no chances of some much needed moisture…things are changing.

Finally.

This morning I’m tracking a cold front moving through the Plains. Overnight, ahead of the front strong south winds have kept temperatures in the 30s. Shockingly (not) in the “Winter Of Wind” we had winds gusting to over 40 MPH from the south. The front in question will be moving into the area later this morning and this afternoon

sfc

As it gets closer some freezing rain is possible this morning or some sort of wintry mix across N MO especially…check out radar and you can see a band of precip up there…the air at the surface is rather dry and with temperatures around 35° what falls evaporates for awhile cooling the air down…and bring temperatures to near 32°.

Most of the wintry stuff will be around the 36 highway and northwards.

In the KC metro should things hold together (there should be weakening with time) we’d probably get some rain or even a bit of a mix, but the roads should be OK.

Then the focus is on what is happening farther up in the atmosphere as a series of fast moving disturbances streaks through the Plains. Tracking these relatively small features will be key to determining who gets some nuisance type snows. One disturbance should target N MO tomorrow morning with the potential for 1-3″ or so again from 36 highway northwards especially during the AM hours through lunch. That will then zip off towards the east as a second, stronger wave zips in on a bit more of a southerly track.

This 2nd wave is what we’ll watch for nuisance plus type snows in the KC area tomorrow evening into Saturday morning. This looks, to me at least, very similar to the snow output from a system in late December on a Saturday night I think…although this time the atmosphere won’t be as cold and the flakes will not be as sugary. This will be a wetter snow later tomorrow night however I could see a 2-4″ swath laid down with this disturbance. Heaviest later Friday into Saturday AM…ending well before lunch Saturday. Here is a preliminary map for you that sort of has the right idea for accums.

ScreenHunter_04 Jan. 30 08.39

We’ll need to watch for some rain to mix in with the snow on the southside…that’s something I’ll look at more this afternoon…but again while not the big storm…this will be a nuisance thing but should be somewhat shoveable…and don’t count on warm air to help melt things…because more cold air is in store for the region through the next 10 days or so.

Then the system for next week is definitely still on the table as NOT surprisingly to me there as been a northward shift in the model data placing the region more under the gun for something more significant in terms of snow. More on that later today.

I’ll be updating the blog sometime before 4PM. I have an talk with a ladies group in Leavenworth early this afternoon.

So here is what I’m expecting for KC…

Now through Lunch…cloudy skies with temperatures warming into the 40s.

Lunch through 3PM…perhaps a band of fading showers moving through if they even hold together. There could be a few ice pellets mixed in…no travel issues.

After 5PM…front moves through and the winds should usher in the chillier air. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the 45-50° range, the winds should lighten up after 2pm.

Tonight: Colder air spills in…nothing terrible…just back to average.

Friday: Lots of clouds with AM snow accumulating north of the KC area (36 highway north) Temperatures for highs around 35°.

Friday night through 7AM Saturday: Snow spreads in from the west. 2-3″ seems reasonable with some 4″ totals possible in areas as well. Areas to the SE of the KC metro may not get much snow out of this. Everything should be over between 7-9AM Saturday. So the snow “window” is not particularly long.

Weekend: Chilly but fine.

More on the storm for next week and updates on tomorrow night in an afternoon update. Wanted you to have something to refer to though as you get started today.

Joe

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