Joe’s Weather Blog: “The February Thaw”

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Well it’s been two weeks…two weeks since the last time we had temperatures above freezing in KC (officially) at KCI. I knew we were going into a long stretch back then…but two weeks…really?

Interestingly this isn’t even one of our longest stretches of cold weather (at least in temperatures below 32°) around here…and even more interesting…it’s not even close. I sent this information to one of my friends from the NWS yesterday via twitter (fox4wx).

 

Now this ranks the most consecutive days with highs 32° or below…and you can see see this would rank as tied for 30th since we’ll be above freezing (perhaps by the time you read this blog this morning). Obviously IF the highs are below 32…then the lows have to be below 32°. So the #1 year was actually back in 1978. Some 35+ years ago! Can you imagine almost one entire month with temperatures below 32°! So in reality this run was about half that total.

We’re going to be in an up and down pattern for the next 4 days or so, before we get more sustained warmth beginning next Tuesday for at least a couple of days in a row.

We are watching another disturbance coming down from the WNW tomorrow AM. Right now it looks like most of the precip will stay to the NE of the KC area…I’ll watch that in case we san see some rain/snow showers here. Then we’ll moderate again over the weekend and a lot of the snow will vanish by Sunday (except the piles).

As soon as we get rid of the snow cover…we can warm-up even more. Although we’re probably going to be due for at least a low cloud surge sometime next Wednesday as moisture from the Gulf moves our way.

So here it is, the 13th of February…and our temperatures for averages are sunning some 17° below average for the month…pretty impressive. I wanted to note this now…because we’ll erode that number quite a bit over the next 7-8 days or so. So let’s see where we are next weekend.

Aside from that the big stories today are the effects of the devastating ice storm in the SE part of the country…the traffic debacle in parts of NC yesterday (it came down just after the AM rush…everybody left to go back home home and boom it was just like Atlanta from last week) and also the Nor’easter hitting the big cities in the NE part of the country. NYC has had about 8″ of snow, a lot of that in the last few hours and are on the verge of teetering into the top 10 for all time snow totals in a winter. Some areas of WV and MD have had 19″ of snow!

Here is a look at the storm via satellite…just a classic nor’easter.

 

and via radar…

 

The snow is starting to mix with rain/sleet along some of the coastal sections now as “warmer” air moves in off the ocean. Here is the position of the storm now…it’s rapidly intensifying as I type this…

Almost 700,000 customers are without power…and the tree damage in the SE with the ice is apparently almost off the charts bad.

Have a great day and enjoy the thaw!

Joe

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3 comments

  • Mike

    Hi Joe,

    You predicted below average temps and above average snowfall for Feb. Good job. So, with the warmth heading in over the next week or so, is that it for winter? Can you say that March will be above average on snow and below average on temps also. Some of the super long range data would say yes! March may come in like a lion.

  • Joe Lauria

    Hi Mike…sorry for the delay…I’m going to go out on a limb and say BELOW avg temperatures again and above avg snow again. I’ve been riding the winter forecast on the anomalous warmth in the NE Pacific and it’s still there in spades. March avg snow is 2″…so I’ll go with over 4″ for the heck of it. Confidence not as high as DEC-FEB though. ^JL

  • Amae

    Good write-up Joe. Thank you ! I always enjoy seeing the animated maps and radar that you provide ! I fully trust your weather forecasting, and have for many years. (But I hope you are wrong about the under/above prediction for March !) just saying enough of this cold. Although I would like to see a nice big-flakes wet snowfall before winter is done.
    I am afraid we will zip past 60, 70, 80…..going from 50’s to 90’s once Spring officially gets here. Going from the furnace straight to the A.C. Harsh winters often lead to hot/dry summers it seems. …but that’s just my feeling, no data to back it up :)
    Thanks for all you do Joe !