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Joe’s Weather Blog: Thunderstorms And Snow?

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That should just about cover things…

9:30 PM update:

A nice round of thunderstorms moved through parts of the region late this afternoon. Some areas had some hail…others had brief heavy rainfall. A lot of areas didn’t get much at all…but there will be some additional opportunities overnight tonight and tomorrow through lunch. I wanted to show you a couple of animations…one is reality…and that would be the NWS radar from Pleasant Hill…showing another area of rain moving in from the SW…and moving to the NE…

 

Now I want to show you one of our short range models…this is from the HRRR and what it thinks is going to happen over the next 15 hours…this model should update every few hours…

 

What needs to be watched is the wrap around snow potential. The newest NAM, not surprisingly, has sort of backed off what it’s been trying to do with the snow accumulations in the KC area. I think my forecast from last night will work…where the best chances of 1-2″ of snow (mainly on grassy surfaces and perhaps some slushy road accums) will be to the N/NW of KC.

Don’t get me wrong…we may still see some heavy wet snow in the KC area tomorrow around lunch…but temps again should be around 35°…any slushy accums would be on the grass and exposed surfaces I think…may look pretty coming down though.

I’ll try to update the blog tomorrow AM early…have a seminar to be at in the northland by 8:30…so I may have to cobble something from there.

Joe

 

Good morning and thanks for reading the FOX 4 Weather blog. Yesterday we hit 65°…making yesterday the warmest day in 3 months…you know something else that happened more than 3 months ago…us getting more than 1/2″ of moisture in a calendar day…and we’re going to try again tomorrow…although I really have my doubts that it will play out the way we want…

Clouds have moved in quickly today…temperatures are starting near 30° this AM…and I wonder IF we can even make 50° today with all this thick cloud cover out there…I was hoping we’d see at least some sunshine this AM….but that does not look promising.

I thought we’d start this morning with a look at the weather map for the southern Plains region. The temperatures are in RED and the dewpoints are in GREEN.

Notice 1) the warmer air south of the Red River along the TX/OK border…2) the higher dewpoints (50s and 60s) sitting in TX and 3) the winds…which are blowing from the east to the west…in OK to the south blowing towards the north in TX. That is the tail end of the front that came through here yesterday evening…taking the mild air away from KC…pushing it to the south…running out of gas…and now the front is in the process of turning into a warm front and will start pushing northwards.

As the front get’s closer to the region overnight tonight…thunderstorms should form (some may produce some small hail from KC southwards)…and quickly shift off towards the NNE overnight tonight (near or before midnight it appears)

There will probably be a lull until the second part of the storm moves in. This backside of the storm may actually produce snow…but the latest data indicates that even IF it snows pretty good…accumulations on the streets may be somewhat tough to come by because our temperatures may be around 35°. Also there may be a 2 hour delay in the snow arriving…it appeared that the snow may get here around 9AM…it may way a couple of extra hours…and that too would tend to reduce the chances of accums. Here is the noon weather map for tomorrow.

sfc

The surface storm has passed through the area and is moving towards NE MO…I’ve outlined the area of 35° air in cyan that is moving in at around that time.

What probably will happen is that temperatures today will max out in the 40s to near 50°…then tonight drop to near 40° as the dewpoints come up. Then tomorrow drop into the 30s in the mid AM as the chilly air moves in behind the storm. As it does so some sort of wintry mix or heavy some fat wet heavy snowflakes will move through as well. Accumulations are possible on exposed surfaces and on the grassy areas especially. I can’t rule out upwards of 2″ of slushy accums in spots, especially towards the north of the KC area. It’s something to monitor. After analyzing the early model data…whatever is falling at noon tomorrow would be snow.

Another facet of the storm will be the winds which should increase markedly tomorrow and blow at close to 30+ MPH during the day especially around lunch or so.

Total precipitation from the storm will be in the 1/4-1/2″ range…with some locally higher amounts IF you get some of the thunderstorm activity overnight. Should you miss that activity, you’ll have to rely mostly on the backside part of the storm…and that should add an addition 1/10-1/4″ of moisture.

The storms tonight may produce at least some small hail in areas…the SPC has highlighted an area south of KC for the potential of near to severe hail criteria reports (quarter sized)

Friday appears to be a windy mild day with highs 50-55°…we’ll cool down over the weekend into the 40s.

Meanwhile farther to the north…it looks like near to blizzard conditions are going to occur around MN and WI…and for some up there this may be the biggest storm of the year.

On the other side of the coin…our hearts go out on this cool winter day to the folks in AZ…after 5 straight days of record highs broken or tied (including yesterday’s 86°)…it’s going to cool down…

If you’re heading to Royals spring training…looking good for awhile.

Actually even though they’re in the desert…it’s still too dry there. They’ve so far missed out on all the rain this winter…it hasn’t rained there (officially) this year yet…and IF they don’t get widespread rainfall in the next month…typically then the other rain they get for the year is in the form of scattered storms in the summer months from the monsoon.

That’s it for today…have a great Wednesday and I’ll get an update out later tonight concerning tomorrow’s snow potential.

Joe

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3 comments

  • Joe Lauria

    Hi Mike:

    Sorry…been running out running errands today…yes that would be a solid 2″er if not more for some…temps may not be the greatest though. My initial thoughts are that it’s too generous with the backside precip totals…^JL

  • Lou Michaels

    Joe, I always enjoy your blogs. You’ve been talking like the first half of March is going to be colder than normal. Do you think at some point in March we might turn the corner and see a stretch of several days in a row with highs in the 50’s or 60’s?