Joe’s Weather Blog: Monster Storm + Some KC Rain

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Remember that little dose of snow we had on Monday…well some of the energy from that little snowmaker for us (decent snowmaker across parts of central KS) has now shifted off the east coast…and the atmosphere is responding dramatically to it…check out the visible satellite pictures that follow…you can really see the storm wrapping up and as it does so it’s getting stronger and stronger. As a matter of fact it’s stronger now than any tropical system/hurricane that we saw last year int he Atlantic hurricane season!

 

It is impressive and the winds it’s creating are more impressive. Nantucket is reporting wind gusts to 82 MPH with heavy snow!

To get an idea of the wind field associated with this monster storm…check out this cool animation!

Look at these live pictures from Yarmouth of a raging blizzard with hurricane like winds…impressive for sure!

Finally look at this radar animation from the NWS in Boston…

 

That is an amazing storm that from a pressure and wind standpoint is actually strong than Sandy was when it hit the NE part of the country. Winds off the coast of Maine per a late buoy report are gustng to over 100 MPH!

The other aspect of this storm are the wave heights associated with it…there is the potential of waves of 40-50 feet with this thing. Here is the latest analysis of the storm’s waves.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/ira1.gif

This is a BIG storm that is creating high waves for thousands of miles along the eastern seaboard.

Meanwhile around here we are starting to see the winds increase…and this will continue for the remainder of the day into tonight. Winds may gust to 40-45 MPH or so as a storm starts to move through the Plains. Clouds which developed during the morning should move away for awhile early this afternoon…temperatures as of 11AM are in the 40s and we should finish the day between 55-60° with gusty winds.

Whatever sunshine we do get this afternoon will not last for that long…there is a wave that’s heading through the southern Plains as I type this blog…you can see the moisture to the south of the KC region in the form of cloud cover…

 

The brunt of that wave will pass to the south of here…but at least some rain should move through part of the region (KC southwards) this evening…here is the regional radar showing the rain moving to the NE…

 

The timing of at least some of this rain moving into the region would be between 6-9PM or so from SW to NE…here is one of our short range models indicating the progression of the rainfall…it should update every few hours from IA State.

 

That will be wave #1 of the rain…but since things are moving SO fast through the atmosphere…aided by winds above the surface at 50-80 MPH up through 6000 feet or so…rainfall amounts won’t be overly generous.

There will be another chance of “better” rain tomorrow with the cold front moving through the region…unfortunately though is still appears that the best chances of something a bit more significant will be towards the east of the Metro…as what thunderstorms that do develop will be developing right on top of the area…or just to the east and racing towards the ENE…here is a look at the the hi-res NAM model for about 5PM tomorrow afternoon as the storms come together. As I mentioned on Monday there will be the risk of 50-60 MPH winds with these storms…

hires_ref_kc_35

Then another wave comes at us on Friday…and that too has potential for creating more rain although we’re getting varying signals on that potential from the model data. The wave itself should be strong enough to generate at least some precip…the question is will there be some decent moisture leftover after what happens tomorrow…and this could be the issue to keep us from maximizing our rainfall potential. Take a look again at the hi-res NAM model…for Friday at 4PM…right now I think a lack of surface moisture will keep rain totals on Friday below 1/4″.

hires_ref_kc_58

So when you add up the various totals and the speed of the rain moving through the area…my feeling is that rainfall for many will be in the 1/4-1/2″ range with some upside potential for areas on the MO side that get some storms tomorrow afternoon. In other words from a precip standpoint…just like all the other events we’ve had for the last few months.

Another storm is due on Monday then next WED-THU..the Monday storm may come through the area starved of surface moisture and again struggling to give is much needed rainfall…perhaps the better decent+ rains may come with the system after that associated with a better moisture return.

A lot going on in the area…and yet depending on the rainfall situation still not exactly rewarding as we head towards Spring full gear now…as I wonder what happens to our soil moisture situation when things start to green up and use that moisture up…

Joe

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