Joe’s Weather Blog: Active Pattern For 1+ Week

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6:45 PM Update…

Wanted to get you some of the links to the tornado videos we showed during the 5PM show of the storms up in Grundy and Daviess County…there as been damage to some of the homes up there…looks mostly to be damage to mobile homes and out buildings…

reports

JL

 

3:30 Update:

Some impressive storms containing hail to golfball size (maybe larger in spots) moved through parts of the area, especially on the MO side. there was one report of a tornado up in DeKalb county earlier.

Some of our FB fans have sent in some great pictures…this is from Tina Tina in Raytown…

This one from Taneka Cusick

and this from Angelica Messina in Independence…

 

finally from Beth Buschmann

 

No doubt some insurance folks will be busy over the next dew days…

JL

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2:15 Update:

The storms are moving through the KC metro area…and thus far have been able to generate some small hail…mostly under 1/2″ or so…and some brief gusty winds of around 50 MPH. To be honest it’s tough to determine the strong winds that we’re having already from winds in the storm themselves. With that said individual cells still may be able to generate 60 MPH winds as they fly to the ENE.  A Tornado Watch is still in effect through 8PM although I’m not expecting any tornados in the KC vicinity from this set-up at this point in time.

JL

 

1PM Update:

A new Tornado Watch has been issued for the entire FOX 4 viewing area until 8PM tonight…see below for additional details…

Here is a look at radar from the NWS in Pleasant Hill, MO

Starting to see the first signs of convection across parts of eastern KS…there is sunshine out there helping to make things more unstable than here in KC as of this writing. Temperatures out there are closer to 70° as well. So there is some instability getting it’s act together from Lawrence to Topeka and southwards. The initial showers that formed a couple of hours ago in NE KS flew to the NE at around 40-50 MPH.

Temperatures over the next few hours should pop to 65-70° in the region before the storms fly by in a few more hours. Here is the latest surface map…notice as well the cold air/snow across NE…this is a pretty typical late March storm for the Plains states..

sfc

The yellowish line on the map represents the dry line…something that will be talked about a lot more over the coming months…basically it separates the more humid/moist gulf air with drier air to the west. The blue line represents the cold front that will sweep through the region later this afternoon. This separates the “milder” air from the colder air sweeping through the western Plains as of this writing.

For us here in the KC area…the storms to our SW will fly NEwards and ENEwards over the next few hours…again with the winds aloft being so strong…we’re talking some 60-70 MPH at around 5000′…it sure wouldn’t take much of a storm to bring some of those stronger winds to the surface…so I continue to feel that the main threat for any storm that flies by will be the potential for some severe wind gusts of 60 MPH. There is also the potential for 1″+ hail. The freezing level of the air above us should be around 9-10,000′ when the storms move through the area this afternoon. Again it wouldn’t take much for at least some hail to get generated in the fast moving storms. The arrival times for the rougher weather will be from about 2PM to 4PM from the SW to the NE through the area…later the farther out into MO you go.

The SPC has highlighted the region as an area to watch for a potential Tornado Watch. My feeling is that the risk of a tornado for any one spot is extremely low. Strong winds and some hail are the primary concerns.

 

Take this set-up a couple of months from now and add in better moisture (higher dewpoints) and I’d probably be talking about MUCH rougher weather for the region.

In the end this will probably be a little wake-up call for us to start thinking about severe weather in the Plains again. Let’s hope for nothing much more than what I’ve detailed above.

Another update will come in a couple of hours…or earlier with additional watch information should one get posted (I’m betting they will issue at least some sort of watch).

JL

 

Wanted to get an early update out for you today…I have meetings and various other things going on today so the next update will come early this afternoon before 3PM or so…by then we should have a front sweeping through the region

A lot of different types of weather are heading this way over the next 7 days including warm-ups, cool-downs, some rain, some thunderstorms and even snow not that far away from the region…hopefully though not here (better chances up in IA and the upper Midwest)

The latest surface map shows a nicely would up surface map developing across the Plains with a warm front to the north of the area and us solidly in the warm sector. Moisture return is evident a the surface and noted by dewpoints in the 50s through the southern Plains.

sfc

Not that late March has rolled around…these types of set-ups need to be watched for the potential of severe storms. This morning we’re keeping an eye out for the amount of instability that we can achieve (we need sunshine for that) and when the instability will occur…and when that instability will be triggered.

The front will move through during the afternoon however there are still major questions about how unstable things may get and hence how strong the storms will be around the state line area…which is roughly where the storms will fire before racing off towards the ENE at nearly 50 MPH.

Our morning satellite picture shows some clearing now across central KS and that will be monitored during the morning hours…I’m still not convinced we’re going to be that unstable later today. There is a better chance of a bit more instability down towards the Lakes region as well as off towards the east of the KC area.

 

The SPC has issued a slight risk of severe storms from KC eastwards with the main threat being gusty winds to about 60 MPH as well as some hail.

 

My feeling is that our HRRR model has got the right idea…this is what it thinks radar will look like between 3-5PM or so…

hrrr_ref_kc_11

Computer crashed…out of time…more later

Joe

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