Joe’s Weather Blog: Busy First Week Of April

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What to Expect:

Sunday: Windy and mild: Temperatures approach 70-75° with winds gusting 35-45 MPH. Skies should be mostly sunny

Sunday night-Monday morning: Increasing clouds with thunderstorms/showers possible after 12AM through about 6AM Monday morning. Some of the storms may contain some small hail. VERY windy with gusts over 40 MPH possible not related to the storms. rainfall may be briefly heavy, especially on the MO side. Rain window is only 1-3 hours or so

Monday: Cold front comes through during the middle of the day. Winds will shift to the west and NW and be 15-25 MPH. Skies should turn partly-mostly sunny in the PM with highs in the 70-75° range

Discussion:

As we swing into early April,, the weather pattern tends to have a fight with itself…in one corner you have “real” spring weather…as it develops and strengthens in the southern part of the country. You also start to see the heat build stronger across the SW part of the country…from west Texas through NM into AZ and southern CA. Meanwhile across the north, winter typically puts up a fight to be vanquished. Cold air is awfully tough to dislodge…and one thing to watch is the continued ice-cover through the Great Lakes and also the extensive snows through Canada helping to reenforce the cold weather up there…making it a bit more potent when it get’s wrapped into storms moving through the middle part of the country.

Check out the snowcover through the northern US and also into Canada…

 

Now look at the ice cover through the Great Lakes…there are still some of the lakes up there with a tremendous amount of ice for the last few days of March!

 

While Lake Michigan and Ontario are relatively ice-free now…Superior and Huron are still almost totally covered in ice. Very impressive!

Spring though starts to put up a fight…the southern part of the country starts to get warmer and warmer…and more importantly for us and rainfall, moisture from the Gulf Of Mexico starts to flow northwards. The more north the moisture gets the more rain we typically get with the individual storms moving through the Plains. This moisture interacts with cold fronts, developing warm fronts, dry lines and synoptic areas of low pressure to help drive rainfall in this part of the country. As we swing into May and June, our rainiest months on a widespread basis here…we need to have our soil well nourished with rainfall before the more sporadic and scattered rains come during the summer months. In other words…we typically “sink or swim” from a drought standpoint depending on how April-June go. Not all the time but I’m betting many times it correlates to what happens to the summer months around here. If those 3-4 months are dry…it typically is not good sign for the summer moisture levels. Especially if it’s dry through a wide region of the Plains.

So with all that said there will be a couple of rather strong storms that will be moving through the Plains over the next 7 days…one comes on Monday and wraps up later tomorrow and into Tuesday through the I-80 corridor and northwards…then another comes a couple of days later…WED-THU along the I-70 corridor. Moisture for storm #1, at the surface at least will be a struggle.

Right now an area of high pressure is in the Plains states…and it’s centered very close to the KC area…this has shunted all the moisture well south towards the Gulf Coast region…you can see the extent of that high by looking at the surface weather map this afternoon.

Now look at the surface dewpoints…

 

Notice the 60° dewpoints are pushed into the Gulf Of Mexico…that is NOT unusual for this time of the year.

By Monday as our next storm get’s cranked up to the north of here…south winds will bring some moisture back to the region…but not a lot. Here are the dewpoints for 1PM on Monday afternoon…with our dewpoints forecast to be near 50°

As this occurs a rather potent area of low pressure will be moving through the upper Midwest and dragging a cold front through the region…

 

As the moisture moves into the area Monday AM, a quick moving round of showers/storms should blow through the area…perhaps even before daybreak…here is the 4AM forecasted radar map showing the convection/rain blowing through.

hires_ref_kc_46

While the front will blow through in the early afternoon…we should still pop to near 70° during the day…overall not too bad but windy again in the PM.

Then we’ll wait for storm #2. While not as intense on the surface…compared to the early week storm…this one may be closer to our area…which means that we should have a better opportunity to pick up more widespread rainfall. There are pretty significant model differences showing up in how the next storm plays out…the GFS is stronger and more intense while the EURO is not as strong. The Canadian is a lot slower and really doesn’t bring the storm through till later next weekend.

These model differences also will determine our risk of severe weather for next WED/THU. It’s too early to speculate about the chances of severe thunderstorms…but the issue is on the table to be watched at least.

Speaking of severe weather…in case you missed it on Friday, the NWS in Pleasant Hill did storm surveys from the tornados in N MO on Thursday. Here is what they found.

In a nutshell…3 tornadoes (2 EF2’s and 1 EF1)

 

ScreenHunter_01 Mar. 29 13.49

Have a great weekend…hold onto those hats tomorrow!

Joe

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3 comments

  • Patrick Trudel (@sedsinkc)

    My girlfriend is from Michigan and most summers we’ll spend a week there visiting her family, which owns a cottage on the beach at Lake Huron north of Saginaw Bay. Huron is the second-coldest Great Lake in the summer anyhow (Superior is coldest). A few weeks ago I half-joked with her about how it’ll be like an ice bath this summer! Maybe there will even be some pack ice still floating out there. 😉 Two summers ago when we had all that heat, Michigan was also much warmer than average that spring and summer and Huron was absolutely beautiful for swimming, around 70 water temp.

  • Joe Lauria

    I love it up there…as a matter of fact today I was planning a trip up in N MI for the summer. Great being there in the cool air while we swelter in the humidity in KC! ^JL