Joe’s Weather Blog: Royals And Storms

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Today is Opening Day (essentially) in MLB and after 91.7″ of snow this season in Detroit…you’d think we’d have crazy weather issues there…but actually today will be great with game-time temps in the 50s up there!

KC’s 36 Hour Forecast:

Today: Clouds give way to sunshine…windy again (maybe not to the extreme as yesterday) Southwest winds gusting to 30 MPH switching towards the west and gusting to 20-30 MPH during the afternoon. Warm again with highs in the middle 70s to almost 80°. There is a marginal chance of some thunderstorms with the cold front coming in later today (<20%)

Tonight: NW winds will bring in colder air…skies should be partly to mostly clear with lows by daybreak near 32°

Tuesday: Morning sunshine gives way to rapidly increasing clouds in the PM with a slight chance of some later afternoon sprinkles/showers…better chances overnight Tuesday in to Wednesday. Highs Tuesday should be 49-54°. Winds will be lighter and out of the NE. Scattered storms with perhaps some very small hail are possible at night.

Weather Discussion:

Good morning and thanks for reading the FOX 4 Weather Blog. I’ve altered the blog format just a bit so that the 36 hour forecast is essentially the first thing you see and then the more in depth weather discussion is below that. So for those who simply want to know the what instead of the why…you can find out in less than 1 minute. For those who have time to read my ramblings about the weather…you’re covered too! What do you think of this?

So the forecast last night and the weekend really was nearly perfect as thunderstorms and showers moved through the area at exactly the time that was predicted and are now moving away. Sometimes you actually have to trust the models…and they did a near perfect job with the rain…especially in such a marginal situation in terms of surface moisture.

The 8AM surface map shows a strong surface low moving into the Plains states…this thing will be one of the strong lows we’ve seen in the Plains over the last few months.

sfc

Ahead of that low, strong S winds will bring in some moisture…then the front should move through in the afternoon. We should clear out later this AM and with the sunshine helping and the warm airmass, we should pop well into the 70s with some areas flirting with 80°. As a matter of fact the HRRR does bring the state line area to near 80 this afternoon which is possible I think given the winds and the warm air in place. Here is a map for 4PM today showing temperatures…click to make it more readable.

hrrr_t2m_kc_11

So with the warmth there…and a front coming in…can we pop some additional cells? Not out of the question but it appears the somewhat better chances will be on the MO side farther to the east of the KC Metro. Here is the forecasted radar from the HRRR for 7PM today with cells closer to highway 65 and south to highway 54 near the Lakes region

hrrr_ref_kc_14

Behind the front that sweeps in cooler air will flow through the region tonight and between the cooler air and the clouds increasing tomorrow…we’ll struggle for temperatures with highs near 50°. That’s about 25-30° cooler than today.

The storm connected to the cold front coming in later today is a doozy but thankfully most of the energy will be directed into the northern Plains. Blizzard conditions are up there today fueled by 50 MPH winds and blinding snow! The 8AM surface map up there shows the circulation of the storm and the ** reports of snow…look for the 3 *’s and the 4 *’s for moderate to heavy snow reports.

 

and to add insult to injury…temperatures in ND are closer to 10° as of this writing.

Please see yesterday’s blog for rain thoughts on Wednesday, there has been no change in my thinking about that and the potential for us to get some decent rain here. Did you know that it’s been almost 5 months since we’ve had more than 3/4″ of rain in a calendar day and almost 6 months since we’ve had more than 1″ of rain in a day. We can really use a good soaking!

In my opinion the day to watch for any potential severe weather will be on Thursday. That will be tied to a disturbance that will be moving through the Plains states. Right now you can see that disturbance off the NW coastline. Actually using this water vapor loop you can see both storms clearly…they are beasts of storms too!

 

The western storm will come out through the Plains and try to force the warm air to our south northwards. Where the surface pattern sets up will be the key to our storm chances on Thursday and severe weather risk. IF the surface low is farther north and we’re in the warm air sector severe weather will certainly be possible allowing enough instability to build up…should the features be farther south…then we’d be cooler and severe weather would be less likely. Certainly not a slam dunk in where the surface storm is going to be located. Our EURO data for THU at 1PM has temperatures ranging from 75° in Harrisionville to 49° in Maryville…so you can see the spread in where the warm air could be located. Then there is the question of how unstable we can get and whether or not the surface low will be nearby or off to the E/SE of the KC metro reducing our instability.

Regardless at this point Friday’s weather for the home opener with the Royals looks chilly in the AM and cool in the PM with highs in the 50s. Heck a couple of days ago the GFS was cranking out snow on Friday…which I knew was wrong…but still it shows what can happen during this weird time of the year. With that said let’s watch a system due in in 1 week for something “interesting” just in case. It will probably be too warm for snow…but something to watch at least.

Have a great day and enjoy the warmth…shorts are a good thing today…what’s better is I’ll be watching my beloved Royals on TV…so all things are good today. Can’t wait for Friday’s game!

Joe

 

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