Joe’s Weather Blog: Some Decent+ Rain Possible

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Good afternoon:

Despite all the clouds it’s still turning into a decent day out there with temperatures approaching 65-70°…we started out pretty mild this morning with lows in the middle 50s. By the way, through yesterday we’re still running some 2.5° below average for the month so far. We may erase a lot of that heading into Sunday before we see chillier weather move back into the region.

Forecast:

Tonight: Clearing skies but turning cool. Lows by daybreak into the lower-middle 40s. Winds will drop off later this evening.

Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny and nice. Winds will turn towards the SE at around 10-15 MPH. Highs in the 70-75° range. Some clouds in the PM may move through the area.

Saturday: Increasing clouds, mostly low clouds with some intervals of brief sunshine. Turning windy with south winds increasing to 25-35+ MPH in gusts. Rain chances are low throughout the day but increase later Saturday night in the KC area. For areas closer to the IA border there may be some scattered storms developing Saturday evening. Highs should be around 75°.

Sunday: Cold front comes through promising rain and thunderstorms. Timing of the front may change so we should start mild then turn sharply cooler later in the day. Blustery in the PM hours especially. Make your outdoor plans for Saturday at this point!

Discussion:

The main issues we’re going to have with the weather is Saturday night into Sunday as a couple upper level pieces of energy come into the Plains. I’ve written about this for the past few days and really there hasn’t been much of a change in the data. There are still some questions though. 1) how will these pieces of energy “play” with each other? 2) and connected to #1 how much rain will we end up getting? 3) there will be a cold front attached to all this…when does that front come through and how fast will the temperatures drop? 4) How cold does it get Monday and Tuesday morning?

Let’s first of all start by showing you the pieces of energy that will be heading this way. #1 is a system off in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

energy

Piece #1 will come through the area first and it will break up into chunks as it does so. This piece of energy will come through the area and help to deliver the colder air into the region…as the colder air moves through piece #2 will start to dig into the western Plains allowing the flow aloft to be from the SW to NE. So we’ve got a potential good overrunning situation setting up for Sunday. This should be where the heaviest rain potential comes in.

Take a look at the GFS forecast for the 500 mb level…this level helps us track these pieces of energy…it’s an animation so give it some time to load up…but I think you can clearly see one chunk coming in off the Pacific and another dropping in from the PAC NW.

 

So there are a few things that will play out…but the potential for a significant rain continues to be on the table. I mentioned a few days ago 1/2″-1 1/2″ are possible and I still feel that way. I do feel that to get there we’re really going to need the the bulk of the rain to come after the front moves in.

Speaking of the front check out the forecasted weather map for Sunday @ 1PM off the NAM model…the front should be nearby. Should things slow down a bit the colder air behind the front will also slow down in it’s arrival into the KC area…

sun

 

With all this going on and a strong cold front coming…you might be wondering about the potential of severe weather with this. At this point we’ve just not set-up for that potential…but there are ways that something can happen…and the main way is for everything to slow down about 6-9 hours or so so we could try and warm-up a bit more on Sunday. Although even that potential can be muted with a lot of low level cloud cover keeping a lid on temperatures. The SPC feels the best chance is well south of the region…

 

So once this is done with us…then we’ll focus on the low temperature potential…and the risk of a frost/freeze. The highest chance still appears to be on Tuesday AM…it may be cold on Monday AM…but between the winds and the potential cloud cover I’m not expecting a hard freeze or frost.

Tuesday AM still looks to have the best chance with temperatures dropping into the 20s to near 30° so gardeners pay attention to that forecast the most.

Finally another reminder about the all-day severe weather spotter training session on Saturday in Lawrence.

That’s it for today…another update coming tomorrow afternoon. Have a great day/night.

Joe

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