Joe’s Weather Blog: Furnace Off-A/C On?
Now this is more like it..a perfect afternoon through the area with mostly sunny skies and a pleasant breeze out there…
Rest Of Today: After such crummy weather lately…today is a great pay-back with near perfect conditions outside. We should top off near 70° with west winds of 10-20 MPH.
Tonight: A crisp evening with slowly falling temperatures and clear skies. Lows by daybreak down to near 45°.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and milder. We average close to 70° during this time of the year and tomorrow we should do better than that with highs in the 75-80° range. Very light winds during the day (potential Top 10 Weather Day)
Sunday: Sunny and a little warmer as highs creep closer to 80°. A little more of a SE breeze starts to pick up in the afternoon.
In all honesty we’re actually settling into a nice weather regime for the next 5 days or so…with rain free conditions through the weekend and with the exception of a weak front pushing in later Monday…we look dry for awhile.
The bigger weather stormy through the middle of next week will be how warm we can get…as I continue to think highs well into the 80s are very doable and Monday through Wednesday look to be the warmest.
By Sunday some much warmer air aloft will be building through the western and southern Plains. This warmer air will eventually mix down to the surface early next week and our temperatures will respond quickly. Take a look at the GFS forecast for the temperatures at about 5000′ which will help us track this warmer airmass as it spreads into the Plains states. The following map is from Unisys.
Notice those darker RED colors…that’s the warmer air expanding through the Plains states. As a matter of fact temperatures in the southern Plains may well be close to 100° in some areas…and it’s going to happen fast. Look at the forecasted highs for Sunday afternoon…now these may be a bit overdone…but considering the drought conditions and the brown terrain through parts of W OK and the N TX area…and the very dry air that will be in place…it’s certainly not out of the question. Click on that image to make it larger
Now look at Monday for much of that same area…
By Monday afternoon a weak front will be entering the I-70 corridor region. This front will sag southwards and slowly fall apart early Tuesday. Moisture will increase somewhat on Monday ahead of the boundary but the “convergence” or the collision of different airmasses is so lacking that getting convection to form may be tough. Here is the surface map for Monday at 1PM with the front in the area.
One way of showing instability is by using the CAPE index. CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. As defined by NOAA…
“Convective Available Potential Energy. A measure of the amount of energy available for convection. CAPE is directly related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather. Observed values in thunderstorm environments often may exceed 1000 joules per kilogram (J/kg), and in extreme cases may exceed 5000 J/kg.
However, as with other indices or indicators, there are no threshold values above which severe weather becomes imminent. CAPE is represented on an upper air sounding by the area enclosed between the environmental temperature profile and the path of a rising air parcel, over the layer within which the latter is warmer than the former. (This area often is called positive area.) See also CIN.”
Sounds complicated…but typically the higher the CAPE the more unstable the airmass is. By later in the afternoon Monday…take a look at the CAPE forecast off the latest NAM model.
Notice the strongest CAPE is off towards the S/SE of the KC metro area…based on the current front timing. Being that we’re into May and typically during this time of the year it wants to rain I wouldn’t be surprised if perhaps at least some scattered convection can pop somewhere south of KC towards the Lakes region. The BIG negative however is that we’ll be rather warm aloft…in other words the atmosphere should be capped. So convection IF it can even form should be VERY isolated and in all honesty in the end the cap may very well win the fight.
The cap will be around through Wednesday…towards the end of the week, it should start to weaken and that combined with the storm that I blogged about yesterday should allow more storms to develop. More on that though by the end of the weekend. We may well be setting up for a wetter late next week and potentially into race weekend at the Speedway.
That’s about it for today…have a wonderful weekend…from what I understand the next 2 weekends are the biggest for area nursery’s and home stores for the year in terms of plants/planting!