Joe’s Weather Blog: Wind + Storms For KC

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Good morning…we’ve jumped into a summer-like airmass and for those wondering…no summer is not here to stay…strong indications that next week will be a cooler week overall compared to the weather today.

Forecast:

Rest of today: Windy and warm with some decent humidity to boot as well. Highs in the 86-89° @ KCI (official for KC). Record is 92° in 1934. record in St Joe is 95° (1966)

Tonight: Partly cloudy with increasing rain/storm chances towards tomorrow morning. Mild and breezy with lows well into the 60s

Thursday: Off and on storms (some with locally heavy rain + the threat of some severe weather). Highs in the 70s with more wind throughout the day. The early new data is not exactly that overly bullish with the rain/storms in the region…at least in terms of coverage. So it appears at least some may not get that much tomorrow while others get their better rains later tomorrow night after the front has moved through…more like early FRI AM.

Discussion:

A lot of A/C’s have been fired up lately…whether because of sky-high allergies or increasing humidity + warmer temperatures. Those A/Cs for the later reasons will get a break in a couple of more days. Dewpoints have now risen to about 60° and there are slightly higher dewpoints down into E OK and E TX that may try and get here over the next 24 hours because of strong south winds of 20-30 MPH.

The latest surface map shows southerly winds in play for a large area of the Plains. The boundary that we’ve talked extensively about lately now is up towards IA and there is a developing cold front across the western Plains denoted by the NW winds out there. In the following map the temperatures are in RED and the dewpoints are in GREEN.

 

Also notice the closed circles in from south of Tulsa, OK to NE TX. That is the juicier gulf moisture in the form of cloudy skies moving towards the north. The satellite shows it well early this morning.

 

That moisture should race our way today and gradually “mix out” as it does so, but we should see an increase in the afternoon cumulus clouds in the region today.

Everything that has been talked about lately with regards to the events tomorrow seems to be going somewhat according to plan. We’ll certainly have moisture, in the low levels and above. As a matter of fact the precipitable water or PW which helps us gauge the amount of moisture through the middle of the atmosphere will be rather high.

 

You can see the feed of moisture coming from the western Gulf northwards through the I-35 corridor and then all the way up through the upper Midwest.

So whatever forms will have a good potential of producing some decent+ rains as then move from the SSW to the NNE at around 30-40 MPH. Potentially some of you may see 1-2″ of rain (better chances on MO side it appears)…with some upside depending on how many waves of storms you get through the early evening tomorrow.

The potential for at least some severe weather will continue as well. The better chances look to be early in the day (isolated-marginal hail and wind threats) and also later in the PM and through mid evening (scattered-hail/wind again main threats). With scattered storms off and on throughout the day the amount of instability that will be created tomorrow with heating is still rather tenuous. Farther west along what will be a dry line/cold front area, instability should be greater and whatever forms out there would run towards us later in the day. Those storms overall may pose a better risk of severe weather in our area should they actually form and hold together. The latest new data is not exactly overwhelming in the storm department out there either. Again this still seems like a hail/wind threat for our region should we have any severe weather. The SPC continues to place it’s highest chance of occurrence along the I-35 corridor for tomorrow.

 

It’s one of those things that you should be aware of and keep an eye on radar through the day tomorrow. Most of the activity will be coming up from the SW or SSW and zipping through the area at a pretty good clip.

I mentioned at the top of the blog how this is NOT a long-term jump into the summer weather…just a little blip. Here is the 8-14 day forecast showing that we’ll probably mix in some cooler days over the next couple of weeks.

 

As a matter of fact the GFS model is rather cool for most of next week as well…so the A/Cs will get a big break (assuming allergies aren’t a factor) coming up heading towards the weekend.

I’m going to leave the Severe Weather Potential # the same as yesterday due to the iffy nature of the situation for tomorrow. May jump the number a bit after we figure out what happens after tomorrow’s AM activity.

Have a great Wednesday…lots of lawn mowing for me today!

Joe

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