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Joe’s Weather Blog: Cleaning Off The Desk

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Good morning…as you know every so often I like to “clean off my desk” and bring a variety of things that I’ve seen over the course of the last week+ that I haven’t put in the blog. Those items will be after the forecast.

Forecast:

Rest Of Today: The big story today, aside from the warmer temperatures (low 80s) will be the gusty winds. Winds could gust to 40+ MPH, especially in the afternoon. Skirt Alert in effect for the region!

Tonight: Fair, warm and breezy with lows in the mid-upper 60s

Tuesday: Mostly Sunny and breezy but NOT as windy. Winds on Tuesday should be more like 15-25 MPH or so. Highs in the 85-90° range through the region.

Discussion:

I really can’t add anything more to my comprehensive blog from yesterday regarding the scenario(s) for Wednesday night through Saturday. Nothing has changed and I suspect we’ll have to wait till later tomorrow to have a better feel of how things initially play out. No need to rehash all that was written. Here is the link for the previous blog.

Let’s move on to a variety of tweets that caught my eye recently and that I favorited on our twitter account @fox4wx.

There weren’t may storms in the Plains yesterday but way out in WY there was a beautiful supercell that was caught by chasers…and the tweet has been retweeted hundreds of times. Amazing shot!

and to cap off that supercell…take a look at this timelapse of their travels capturing the storm!

On the subject of severe weather…the numbers of tornadoes continues to be small compared to average…

 

and the folks in OK don’t seem to mind too much (except for the chasers)

Remember the storms that moved through the KC area overnight on Sunday into Monday morning…an analysis of radar data may indicate that a tornado hit the KC metro area.

There is good information in the blog above…check it out…fascinating!

So far in MO there have been 26 reports of tornadoes and on the KS side there have been only 13. It doesn’t look promising for many over the next 7 days either.

Remember that weather blog I wrote last Sunday concerning the coverage of the severe weather and some of the negative responses from folks who were mad they were missing out the the pre-race coverage of NASCAR. Well I wrote a blog about it…one station in SD went a bit further with how they responded to the negative comments.

I nominate Phil Witt to be our spokesperson…j/k ;).

Finally for today…is it too early to talk about the rest of the summer. The Climate Prediction Center came out with their forecast the other day.

and here is the forecast for precipitation.

 

Could be some good news for the Rockies if that pans out.

I still don’t have strong feelings about this summer one way or the other. I’m concerned about the drought that is about a 3 hour drive away, although some areas closer in are having a rough time getting significant moisture. I can see how this drought can sneak into the area…but I wonder if that waits till later in the summer months. I’m also VERY curious to see how my actually decent for a change, winter forecast, hinging on the really warm waters in the N PAC, plays out into the summer months. Not only is the water temperature warm there (compared to average) but it’s really warm in off the SE part of the country as well. IF ridges pop off or close to both coasts…there could be a tendency for more troffing to be in the middle part of the country allowing some cold fronts to penetrate farther south than is typical in the summer months for the Plains. Should this occur there would be a way we could break the heat before it gets too prolonged and also generate storminess giving us better opportunities to get more rainfall.

cpac_cdas1_anom

IF there is a weakness in the Plains or the N Plains (better chance) then maybe we can get at least the opportunity for some additional storminess in the KC region.

Interestingly the drought areas of the S Plains states may see some much needed rainfall over the next week or so. From NEXLAB and the GFS model. This is through 7PM on the 28th of May.

 

compared to the latest drought monitor…

 

our long term CFS2 model is still pretty bullish on the heat for most of KS and the southern Plains region. Here is the temperature forecast averaged out over the last 14 days of runs of the model. Click on the image to make it more readable!

cfs_anom3_t2m_noram_201406_56

So there you go…and now my desk is clean!

Joe

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