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Joe’s Weather Blog: Tornadoes And Rain

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Good morning…interesting day weather wise across the country with some impressive tornadoes in TX and ND and more rain in TX…for us around here…basically more of the same…although as I expected the rain wasn’t much of an event yesterday afternoon due to the clouds that kept the atmosphere from really popping more storms. It tried to but struggled in the later afternoon.

Forecast:

Rest of today: Warm and humid with some additional sunshine compared to yesterday. This should allow a few more storms to pop later today but again it will be feast or famine IF you even get a storm. Very localized and nothing widespread at this point. Highs between 80-85°. Light winds.

Tonight: Clearing out and muggy…lows in the 60s

Wednesday: Same as Tuesday.

Discussion:

Thought we start today by looking at the last week of rainfall through the Plains region via the Midwest Climatic Center rainfall maps…

 

Use the arrows on either side of the maps to click backwards and forwards. You can clearly see KS did very well with the upper level storm while the MO side was always on the dividing line.

TX got some amazing rainfall as well. It’s been really dry down there. O.C. Fisher Lake near San Angelo, TX has seen so much runoff these last few days that it is now a whooping 2% filled!

 

Which is better than about a week ago when it was .6% filled. I guess that’s a baby step. Today the focus on the rain shifts to the eastern Plains of TX and Dixie…here is the 5 day forecast from the NWS sent out by the NWS in Little Rock.

There were tornadoes down there yesterday…nothing really major though and also in ND when there was one very impressive storm that struck one of the oil man’s camp up there injuring 9 men. This storm hit south of Watford City, ND.

Despite the recent tornadoes..this year is still well below average…the following map has all the tornado reports on it through through 5/18…should get updated today at some point…

The SPC reports 35 deaths this year because of tornadoes which thankfully is a low number compared to past seasons and indicative of a lack of tornadoes. So far there have been 377 reports of tornadoes…about 1/3 coming in 4/28 this year.OK, I believe is still at 4 which is an amazingly low number.

I saw this tweet yesterday regarding lightning deaths from last year from the NWS…

15 people so far have been killed by lightning in 2013…a number that typically goes up during the summer months.

So where are we going? Well we’ll be running these day to day chances for the next 5 days or so. There may be an uptick in the activity on Thursday in parts of the area. This would be connected to a disturbance that was generated from storms last night in the upper Midwest that may weirdly come down into MO and then moves SW towards us. In a weird way it would be spinning around the upper level low in a counter-clockwise manor. Strange but IF it can produce for us we’ll take it.

Then next week…somebody in the Plains will be dealing with more heavy rain. I’m not sure it will be us or perhaps farther northwards. The EURO model does place the area in a favored NW flow which would allow disturbances to come down into the region creating all sorts of thunderstorm clusters. The GFS model tries to do this but never really does till next weekend (6-8th).

I’m really not going to panic about the lack of rainfall for the KC metro area for about another week-10 days. There is still potential out there and it’s a matter of getting the potential to pan out. It’s interesting to me that last year…at about this time we were seeing the seeds of the hot summer to come in this region. I still am not convinced that those same seeds are there right now. Maybe in 10-14 days I’ll be there but I’m still not convinced. I’m more convinced that it will be a muggier early summer than last year when we had already started baking out the soil in June.

We’ll see…

Have a great day and assuming things are quiet tomorrow I may take a blog day off.

Joe

 

 

 

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