Joe’s Weather Blog: Another Big Rain Heads In

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Well we’ll be able to salvage the weekend but IF you have outdoor plans through lunch tomorrow…good luck. There are a ton of runs including the Hospital Hill Run that may be very wet and stormy including lightning in the area. The potential exists for locally heavy rains of 1-3″ in parts of the area with tomorrow’s set-up. Also as you know there has been a redesign of the website…leave comments about what is not right with things. For those who want a bookmark for the weather blog only…we’ve set one up for you at fox4kc.com/joesblog

Forecast:

Rest of today: Skies become partly cloudy. Seasonable and sort of muggy with highs in the lower 80s.

Tonight: Dry for outdoor events this evening then increasing chances for rain overnight. Lows in the 60s.

Saturday: Storms/rain in the AM then drying out later in the afternoon. Highs may reach the middle 70s. Could be a bit warmer IF the rain ends faster.

Sunday: Better of the 2 weekend days with highs back into the 80s.

Discussion:

You don’t often get a lot of fog in June around here…but it was sort of a foggy morning out there. This is due to the cooler airmass that was in place after the complex of storms moved through yesterday and also the light winds overnight. With all the moisture in the ground as well adding a bit more humidity to the lowest part of the atmosphere. as temperatures dropped to the dewpoint temperature…the humidity became 100% or so and fog formed.

Fog really is just a cloud on the ground. During this time of the year it’s really just a collection of water droplets suspended in the air. From space this is what it looks like.

ScreenHunter_16 Jun

There is another MCS moving through the southern Plains this morning…this should pass well towards the south of the area this morning.

 

Later today and tonight another complex will form, except farther northwards into the western parts of KS and E CO. This area is a more favored area for it to come towards the KC region tomorrow morning as it too moves off towards the east. Hence the highest rain chances for the area being tomorrow AM.

The silver lining about this is that when these things come through during the 1st part of the day it typically kills off the rain chances later on so activities tomorrow evening should be OK and this system will reinforce the pleasant airmass in place right now for the month of June.

Here is something that I don’t show often…this is a forecasted satellite picture off the NAM model for 1AM tonight showing the developing MCS moving into the central Plains region.

ScreenHunter_17 Jun. 06 09.21

Same idea except for 4AM…

ScreenHunter_18 Jun. 06 09.22

and now 7AM Saturday morning…

ScreenHunter_19 Jun. 06 09.23

This data is from last nights computer run and on it at least there is a weakening trend to the MCS as it moves our way tomorrow morning.

Computer forecasts though for these events are never really perfect in terms of where the best rainfall is going to go. The newest NAM model suggests that the heavier rains will be from KC southwards (1-3″).

The new runs also indicate some sort of splitting of the rainfall…take a look a the forecasted radar from 1AM-4AM-7AM. This data is from the hi-res NAM model.

Should this play out…we’d improve the weather even faster tomorrow morning…but I have my doubts and would rather just play tomorrow AM wet through lunch because I don’t trust the model output.

The lower res NAM cranks out quite a bit of moisture around the region tomorrow…here is the 24 hour total from 7PM tonight through 7PM Saturday night. Click on all the images today to make them llarger and more readable.

nam_24hr_precip_mc_13

The truth probably lies somewhere in between so odds favor areas farther north with less rainfall while areas farther south get more rainfall. Again some may get 1-3″ out of this. Confidence is high that we get the rain but my confidence is not as high in terms of the location of the heaviest rain axis.

We may do the whole thing all over again on Monday…then that should do it for awhile in terms of the MCS weather pattern that is effecting our region.

That’s it for today…have a great Friday!

Joe

 

 

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7 comments

  • Amy

    Hey Joe, I read your blog daily (or whenever it’s available) and the redesign is awful…it doesn’t load correctly so I have to go to the main Fox 4 page and click Weather, then click the blog link to get it to open. I’m using Chrome if that makes a difference. Also, the font is so big you could probably read it from the neighbor’s house. With that said, you still have the BEST weather blog in town so the redesign is a minor annoyance and I’ll still continue to get my awesome weather info here. Thanks for the blog link and always doing a great job!

  • Amae

    Joe, I actually like the re-design of the Fox4 website, and I LOVE the new look of the blog ! I think they are both very user friendly. And the larger font of the blog makes it so much easier on old eyes ! :)
    Still love the maps and graphs you put out, and your write-ups. You put things into perspective. No hype, no drama. It is so refreshing to “walk in” here….feels like home… Like kicking off my shoes, sitting down and reading a good book. :) thank you Joe