Joe’s Weather Blog: Next Storm Curve Ball?

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Good afternoon…a cool gray early afternoon across the region as low clouds moved in this morning near daybreak and high clouds from the blowoff of a thunderstorm complex moved in at the same time. The combination giving us a comfortable day from a temperature standpoint. we should see extra sunshine later this afternoon and max out into the mid 70s or so.

Forecast:

Tonight: Clearing evening skies then partly cloudy overnight. Lows 60-65°.

Tomorrow: Mostly dry in the AM hours. There may be a few showers around but overall dry. Then near/after lunch into the evening there should be an uptick in the showers developing on the south of the KC area and west of the metro and moving this way. These may be around tomorrow night as well. So basically increasing rain chances as the day moves along it appears. It will not rain all day though and some outdoor things will be able to get done. Highs should be 70-75° near lunch with cooler temperatures in the afternoon.

Tomorrow Night: Intermittent rain around the area. Lows in the 60s.

Tuesday: Best chance of rain is during the 1st part of the day. Then drying out later in the afternoon. Highs may struggle to get to 70°.

Discussion:

If you remember yesterday in the blog, I sort of compared this next storm due in on MON/TUE to something like a winter storm what we’d see in the cold season…and as a result mentioned that we’d have to watch the track of the developing storm for indications of 1) where the best overall rain would be and 2) where the wrap-around rains would set up. #2 on this one may be the more important one because A) that effects Tuesday’s forecast and B) IF we’re going to get anything more than a minor rain out of this…it may come down to a persistent wrap around effect to deliver the bonus extra rainfall to make this a more noteworthy storm.

The data today is either all in (NAM and hi-res NAM) or not really all in (GFS). One issue that we’re having is exactly where this storm will track and whether or not it will close off and the location of that possibility and fling moisture/rain back into the KC area of significance on Tuesday.

The NAM which has been very bullish with the rain…continues to do so and really it seems the GFS/Canadian combination is not quite as heavy with the rain the farther north you go. Here are the rain totals through 7PM Tuesday evening…click on all the images to make them larger.

1st the NAM…

nam_total_precip_mc_29

now let’s go with the hi-res version…centered on top of the KC area showing widespread 1-2+” rains with the heaviest axis towards the north of KC up near the 36 highway corridor.

hires_t_precip_kc_20

 

Now let’s look at the GFS forecast…

gfs_tprecip_mc_21

it shows the heavier rains more towards the south of the KC area…again that is based on where the wrap-around rainfall set’s up later Monday night into Tuesday.

Finally the Canadian model…

cmc_total_precip_east_11

A little more impressive for the KC area overall with a nice east>west heavier axis near or just south of the I-70 corridor.

So where are we? Well it appears at this point that far N MO…closer to the IA border will not get that much out of this…the strongest indication is that they will miss out on the wrap around potential of the storm reducing the amounts. This is actually a good thing…because they’ve had so much rain over the past few weeks…they need some drying time for the fields etc.

nws_precip_kc_21

Just east of Maryville, MO there has been almost 7″ of rain since May 8th…and I know there are some higher totals up there. Meanwhile in the KC area we’ve had about 4″ of rainfall.

There is no doubt that the NAM model is not nearly as aggressive with the storms intensity. It’s also reduced the extent of the rainfall and the intensity of the rain amounts in the last couple of runs.

The GFS model…has the same overall strength of the storm but is noticeably farther south compared to yesterday’s runs. The EURO model sort of indicated this potential yesterday.

So what do I think is going to happen? I think this is going to take a bit longer to develop tomorrow so I think the AM is mostly dry and even into the early afternoon. Then the rain should start to develop and the best rains hold of for the KC area until Monday night into Tuesday. It’s very possible that Tuesday temperatures are only near 65° with rain in the area (and that could be a push). I’ll take a stab that rain amounts will be 1/2″-1 1/2″ in the region with heavier amounts farther to the south and southeast of the metro.

Before I leave you…want wanted to show you a couple of videos regarding the strength and power of lightning. First though some facts…did you know that lightning can heat the air immediately around it to 50,000° and contain a 100 million volts of electricity! detection systems in this country alone indicate upwards of 25 million strikes per year coming from over 100,000 thunderstorms. The odds of being hit by lightning are about 1 in 700,000.
So with that said…check out these two videos…one is a tree being hit and obliterated in upstate NY.

Then there was this car that was struck while it was moving. Some say it’s the rubber tires that protect the occupants in a car from being electrocuted…but in reality it’s the metal frame that protects the passengers in a car. Lightning hits the car is funneled through the frame of the vehicle then comes out of the wheel wells/covers. When it comes out it can blast holes in the pavement that require repairs because they’re so deep.

I just noticed this afternoon that one of the runways in Ft Lauderdale, FL was hit by lightning requiring repairs that closed the runway for a few hours. It’s now back open. Lightning can do some bizarre things to the objects it hits.

Finally today is the anniversary of the Topeka Tornado that struck on 6/8/1966. It was an F5 tornado with winds well over 200-250 MPH. It killed 17 and injured over 500. It destroyed 850 homes and damaged more than 3000 others. It was on the ground for around 22 miles. Here is some additional information from the NWS in Topeka.

and some rare video that I found on youtube.

That’s it for today…have a great Sunday and hopefully the rain won’t mess up your plans tomorrow.

Joe

 

 

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