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Joe’s Weather Blog: Slow Developing Rain

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Good morning…boy IF this was a winter storm scenario, which I’ve compared this storm too for the last few blogs, we’d be sweating this forecast like crazy right now. Where would the cut-off to the rain and or snow be etc. Good thing this is late spring and we don’t have to worry about those items anymore till next winter.

Forecast:

Today Through lunch (12-2PM): Cloudy skies or for those with sunshine farther east of the KC area turning cloudy as lunch approaches. Temperatures approach 75°.

Lunch (12-2PM)-this evening: Rain develops to the west and south of the area and spreads north towards the I-70 corridor. Temperatures as the rain develops fall back to near 70 and perhaps 60s this evening. Evening activities may be in jeopardy including the baseball game out at the “K”. Once the rain set’s up in a east>west band it may not move much and as a result some may get stuck in the rain. The new NAM model suggests this could be very close to the I-70 corridor.

Tonight: Rain likely, some heavy especially from KC southwards. New data this AM suggests the potential of 1/2″-1 1/2″ of rain overnight into Tuesday AM with some embedded thunder. Looks like the best chance of rain will be south of 36 highway to the north of the KC metro. N MO will escape without getting much rain out of this (if any).

Tomorrow: Rain may tend to hang around the I-35 corridor off/on for the day. Cool again with highs 65-70° during the afternoon

Discussion:

This is not as clear cut as it should be I think. Timing the rain is a tough one today but I’d be surprised if it’s not raining in the region this evening. How far north the rain gets though is a huge issue and as mentioned above the farther north you go within the viewing area the less likely rain will be an issue. The cutoff favors 36 highway or close to it and there is a scenario where the KC metro could be the cutoff to the northern extent of the rainfall.

Imagine if this was a winter forecast. it’s be the classic 0-12″ forecast for the viewing area and potentially from St Joseph to Sedalia…thank goodness it’s June and not January.

All this is related to a developing upper level storm that will be moving into KS and eventually to the south of the region. This has been talked about extensively and I’ll post the model graphics of the storm in a minute. I am confident that there will be a rather sharp northern edge to the rain as it pivots around the storm…and where the storm goes will establish the northern cutoff. The farther south it goes the farther south the cutoff is. The farther north it goes the more of a chance more of the area gets into the rain.

Take a look at the 500 mb forecast for the developing storm. Notice that IF it ends up south of the I-44 corridor…it will take the heavier rain farther south with it…perhaps putting Butler>Sedalia more in the path of the decent rain (and they could probably use it more than N MO).

 

Now let’s use the HRRR model for a shorter term forecast over the next 15 hours. This model will auto-update for you every 3 hours throughout the day.

 

You can see the radar rotation out across central KS and also notice how that is dropping more towards the south towards OK…notice how the rain develops then fades then develops and wraps into the storm moving from the east to the west almost. Where the main band that fully develops later today/tonight finally set’s up will determine whether the I-70 corridor gets 1″+ rain or whether we’re under 1/2″ rain.

Let’s use the regional radar for watching how things actually develop today…or don’t depending on where you live.

 

Boy NW KS and SW NE is getting a major soaking of rain with a stuck comma head of rainfall falling out there. Doppler estimates of 1-3″ are indicated and more is coming today. It’s also crazy windy out there with gusts as of this writing near 45 MPH. If this was winter this would be a record setting blizzard out there!

That’s it for today…I may get a brief update done at 9:30 with the new NAM model. Aside from that I’ll be away from a computer this afternoon helping out with a golf tournament in support of Pathway for Hope.

Joe

 

 

 

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