Joe’s Weather Blog: Time To Dry Out…But Not For Long

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Good afternoon…skies are clearing out nicely from KC westwards early this afternoon and that clearing trend will expand through the region as the afternoon moves along. There is still rain towards the SE of the KC area towards the Lakes region.

Forecast:

Tonight: Some very nice weather is settling into the region with a nice NW breeze that will fade as the evening moves along. Temperatures will be in the 60s later this evening and then down to 50-55° tomorrow AM. The record is 47° in 1985

Friday: Very nice day on tap, much like yesterday with highs 75-80°

Saturday:  A little more muggy with highs 80-85°

Discussion:

Well another good drink from Mother Nature earlier this morning as 1/2″-1 1/2″ of rain moved through the region. Although at this point most of the rain is now running off into area creeks/lakes/ponds etc. The soils are pretty saturated and can use a 2-5 day dry spell. I’m not sure past Saturday how dry we’ll be though.

I was curious to see the results of the latest drought monitor that came out this morning. This report takes into account rainfall through 7AM Tuesday…so it didn’t include the rain from earlier today. The results were encouraging with the elimination of the drought from the KC area.

 

The yellow shade represents “abnormally dry” conditions while the tan shade is “moderate drought” conditions.

Here is the information on the KS side…

 

The orange shade represents  severe drought and the red shade is extreme drought. The “severe drought” conditions dropped from 76% to 54% which is a dramatic change from last week.

So there is still parts of the FOX 4 viewing area under moderate drought conditions and areas from Pleasanton to Butler southwards are still included…but perhaps NOT next week.

Here is a look at the doppler indicated rainfall amounts from teh overnight and morning activity as of 12:30 PM.

Capture

The 1st green shade represents amounts of at least 1/2″…the yellows are for amounts near or greater than 1 1/4″.

Here is the national drought report…

 

Now take a look at the rainfall over the last 30 days via WxBell. There are lots of 5-10″ areas on that map, especially in the Midwest and Dixie into central and eastern TX.

 

There are still some serious rain issues in the SW Plains region though…not sure if that can change dramatically for the better over the next few weeks.

For the KC region…since 5/1 we’ve officially picked up nearly 6.2″ of rainfall (@ KCI). Here are some other reports…all since 5/1

St Joseph, MO: 7.84″

Downtown KC: 7.87″

Lees Summit: 7.29″

Olathe-Industrial Airport: 7.74″

Olathe-JOCO Executive: 7.41″

Pleasant Hill: 10.71″(!)

Chillicothe: 5.51″

Sedalia: 7.04″

In almost all instances most of those totals give or take 1-2″ are all since the 1st of June. Needless to say it’s been wet.

Onwards to the next rain which comes our way later in the weekend and next week. This will be tied to a storm which is right now across the NW part of the country. You can see it spinning into the PAC NW…

 

That storm will move through the Rockies and then into the upper Midwest over the next few days…as it does so conditions will become more favorable for late springtime storms to develop, especially in NE over the weekend. How that activity holds together and just how far a front will make it to us will play a role in our storm chances on Father’s Day.

Here is the forecast off the morning run of the NAM model for later Sunday afternoon/evening…showing the surface features. Note the cold front that will be NW of the KC area.

sffc

That front (depending on the convection associated with it) despite being so close to us may struggle to get through the entire area. So that by MON-WED of next week the front retreats back northwards and we’re essentially in the steamy June air that is more typical for this part of the country. So the higher rain chances may be Sunday and/or Monday (depending on any leftover boundaries).

It looks like the front will then retreat northward and fall apart early next week and then whether or not it comes back to us in the middle of next week is rather uncertain. The GFS/Canadian says yes it does while the latest EURO says nope…steam heat on the way with little to no rain chances after Monday.

At this point I have no strong feelings for the eventual outcome…I do think the initial front will struggle to get to I-35 (Sunday/Monday). It may just barely get into the region (assuming enough t/storms to push it through). As for the 2nd push of cooler air for the middle of next week…we’ll just have to wait a couple of more days for me to feel better about that. I do think though that we’re not done yet with the thunderstorm complexes and more are possible for at least the next 10 days.

Joe

 

 

 

 

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1 Comment

  • Amae

    Joe..question….
    Was hoping for a summer without any 100′s ! Has this ever happened here…..or when was the latest FIRST 100 degree day here ?
    I know last year we did not have a real heat wave until the week BEFORE Labor Day ! And that may have been our first 100 degree day of the summer., that same week. Can you check to see ?
    Thanks Joe