Joe’s Weather Blog: Next Rain Chance Not Far Away
Today has got to be a top 10 weather day for 2014. It’s just perfect out there with light winds and little, if any, cloud cover out there. Temperatures are in the 70s and dewpoints are in the 50s…in mid June no less. Our morning low was 52° about 5 degrees off from the current record. There were even some 40s out there north of the KC area. Spickard, MO dropped to 47°.
Tonight: Perfect with lows back down to near 60°. Light winds. Winds increase towards daybreak.
Tomorrow: Winds rapidly increase after sunrise with gusts during the day possible to 35+ MPH. Skies may turn partly cloudy in the afternoon. Warmer as well with highs well into the 80s. Higher dewpoints=higher humidity values as well (compared to today). There could be some isolated fast moving t/showers across NE KS and NW MO that would move to the NE.
Sunday: Interesting day and one that is not set in stone in terms of the rain chances. There will be a chance in the AM through lunch. IF that doesn’t happen then the potential for stronger storms may develop in the afternoon hours from KC south and eastwards. A front will be nearby which creates the forecast “iffiness”. It won’t rain all day, but there may be a lot of clouds around. Let’s again shoot for highs in the 80s. IF the storms don’t form till the later PM hours there might be a limited severe weather risk.
Man is it nice out there…today is just spectacular although as far as the big picture goes it’s going to change. Winds and increasing humidity tomorrow then storm chances Sunday then steamy weather into next week with hotter temperatures.
Today’s visible satellite picture shows what I’m talking about…1st notice the clear skies through the Plains states! now notice the cloud cover towards and south of the Red River. That is the more typical June airmass that will race here tomorrow thanks to strong south winds.
You can see the fetch of moisture return up through the Panhandle of TX and into the far western Plains. The latest surface map shows a nice HIGH right on top of W MO…and the dewpoints in green in the station reports are unseasonably low for Mid June. Farther south where the clouds are though the air is considerably juicier and it’s much more typical of mid-June weather.
The moisture is on the return because of a storm system that will be developing in the Plains as the result of an upper level wave that will be moving out of the western part of the country. This wave aloft will move from Denver to SW MN over the next couple of days and as it does so a cold front will develop/move through the Plains as well.
Here is the forecast map off the NAM model for SUN @ 7AM with a cold front of sorts near the region.
This front on Saturday PM and night should fire severe storms through NE…and some sort of line should then try to make it’s way towards us and probably weaken as it does so. Where the storms initially form, well NW and W of the KC region, they should be severe…and there is a moderate risk of severe weather in NE and IA for tomorrow late day.
How those storms hold together (NAM) or not (GFS) will determine the timing of the rain chances on Sunday. If the storms fall apart before they get here or really weaken…then whatever boundary is left over combined with the afternoon heating then would fire up new storms sometime SUN PM.
Then depending on what happens on Sunday…that could determine the fate of the storm chances on Monday as whatever front moves near the area Sunday then starts to retreat northwards on Monday. The atmosphere will become very unstable on Monday but at the same time a rather stout cap will build into the region suppressing storm chances in the PM.
So we’ll keep an eye on Sunday’s forecast over the next 24-36 hours. The next blog update will be Saturday afternoon by 2:30 or so.
Finally this afternoon the folks at the Douglas County EM (@dgcoem) tweeted out a couple of pictures showing the change in the KS River from June of 2012 and June 2014. Granted these are just snapshots in time but still interesting to see how things change from time to time!
That’s it for today…have a great weekend an I’ll update you again tomorrow.