Joe’s Weather Blog: Next Rain Chance Not Far Away

This is an archived article and the information in the article may be outdated. Please look at the time stamp on the story to see when it was last updated.

Today has got to be a top 10 weather day for 2014. It’s just perfect out there with light winds and little, if any, cloud cover out there. Temperatures are in the 70s and dewpoints are in the 50s…in mid June no less. Our morning low was 52° about 5 degrees off from the current record. There were even some 40s out there north of the KC area. Spickard, MO dropped to 47°.

Forecast:

Tonight: Perfect with lows back down to near 60°. Light winds. Winds increase towards daybreak.

Tomorrow: Winds rapidly increase after sunrise with gusts during the day possible to 35+ MPH. Skies may turn partly cloudy in the afternoon. Warmer as well with highs well into the 80s. Higher dewpoints=higher humidity values as well (compared to today). There could be some isolated fast moving t/showers across NE KS and NW MO that would move to the NE.

Sunday: Interesting day and one that is not set in stone in terms of the rain chances. There will be a chance in the AM through lunch. IF that doesn’t happen then the potential for stronger storms may develop in the afternoon hours from KC south and eastwards. A front will be nearby which creates the forecast “iffiness”. It won’t rain all day, but there may be a lot of clouds around. Let’s again shoot for highs in the 80s. IF the storms don’t form till the later PM hours there might be a limited severe weather risk.

Discussion:

Man is it nice out there…today is just spectacular although as far as the big picture goes it’s going to change. Winds and increasing humidity tomorrow then storm chances Sunday then steamy weather into next week with hotter temperatures.

Today’s visible satellite picture shows what I’m talking about…1st notice the clear skies through the Plains states! now notice the cloud cover towards and south of the Red River. That is the more typical June airmass that will race here tomorrow thanks to strong south winds.

 

You can see the fetch of moisture return up through the Panhandle of TX and into the far western Plains. The latest surface map shows a nice HIGH right on top of W MO…and the dewpoints in green in the station reports are unseasonably low for Mid June. Farther south where the clouds are though the air is considerably juicier and it’s much more typical of mid-June weather.

sfc

 

The moisture is on the return because of a storm system that will be developing in the Plains as the result of an upper level wave that will be moving out of the western part of the country. This wave aloft will move from Denver to SW MN over the next couple of days and as it does so a cold front will develop/move through the Plains as well.

Here is the forecast map off the NAM model for SUN @ 7AM with a cold front of sorts near the region.

Capture

 

This front on Saturday PM and night should fire severe storms through NE…and some sort of line should then try to make it’s way towards us and probably weaken as it does so. Where the storms initially form, well NW and W of the KC region, they should be severe…and there is a moderate risk of severe weather in NE and IA for tomorrow late day.

 

How those storms hold together (NAM) or not (GFS) will determine the timing of the rain chances on Sunday. If the storms fall apart before they get here or really weaken…then whatever boundary is left over combined with the afternoon heating then would fire up new storms sometime SUN PM.

Then depending on what happens on Sunday…that could determine the fate of the storm chances on Monday as whatever front moves near the area Sunday then starts to retreat northwards on Monday. The atmosphere will become very unstable on Monday but at the same time a rather stout cap will build into the region suppressing storm chances in the PM.

So we’ll keep an eye on Sunday’s forecast over the next 24-36 hours. The next blog update will be Saturday afternoon by 2:30 or so.

Finally this afternoon the folks at the Douglas County EM (@dgcoem) tweeted out a couple of pictures showing the change in the KS River from June of 2012 and June 2014. Granted these are just snapshots in time but still interesting to see how things change from time to time!

 

 

That’s it for today…have a great weekend an I’ll update you again tomorrow.

Joe

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

3 comments

  • Amae

    Wow….what a striking contrast between those shots ! Amazing. Thanks for posting those Joe !
    Now a question….
    Was hoping for a summer without any 100′s this year….wishful thinking I know 🙂 Has this ever happened here, a summer without 100 ? or when was the latest FIRST 100 degree day here ?
    I know last year, 2013, we did not have a real heat wave until the week BEFORE Labor Day ! And our first 100 degree day of summer 2013 may have been that same week. Can you check to see ?

    And Happy Friday the 13th/Full Moon tonight ! It’s called a Honey Moon ! Next one (on Friday the 13th) won’t be until the year 2088 !

    Thanks Joe

    • Joe Lauria

      Amae:…yes in the late 90s I think there was a summer or two without 100° @ KCI. Also the next full moon and 13th days together will be in August of 2049. I think you’re right about 2013///9/8 was the 1st 100 I believe. ^JL

      • Amae

        Thanks Joe !
        Actually I threw out the year 2088 because that is what I read when reading online about the Honey Moon. So, maybe 2088 was referring to the next time that they will occur together in the month of June. Ok, so maybe I have a shot at still being around to see it in 2049 !