Joe’s Weather Blog: Back To The Thick Air (SAT-6/21)
Welcome to summer…it officially started in KC at 5:51 this morning…today we have 14 hours and 57 min of daylight…tomorrow we lose 1 minute of daylight (or thereabouts) as the sun will rise at 5:53 AM. Don’t fret too much though…we don’t lose time at that rate for another week or so…then we start losing 1-2 minutes/day pretty consistently all the way to winter which is 182 days away from today.
This afternoon: The sun is becoming more and more visible this afternoon as we chase the clouds…rain chances now appear to be about 20% or less and odds favor most areas staying dry for the rest of the day.
Tonight: Fair and muggy with light winds. Lows 70-75°
Sunday: Partly cloudy with scattered storms possible later in the day/evening. Chance is 30%. Muggy all day with SW winds of 10-15 MPH. Heat index should be 95-100°. Higher rain chances later Sunday night into Monday.
Monday: T/storms and showers likely but not all day. Highs around 82°.
Some areas up across far NW MO near the IA border had 1-3+” of rain overnight and that same thunderstorm cluster helped to create an outflow that pushed across the area this morning before daybreak. That sent our dewpoints down into the middle 60s for awhile and helped to give us a bit of a break from the thick ripe air that we dealt with yesterday. The winds were from the north for most of the morning.
Those same winds have now switched back towards the south as the boundary has effectively been wiped out for us and now with the clouds thinning and south winds back, temperatures are rebounding and the dewpoints are slowly climbing again. The southside of KC (at 1PM) is already in the mid-upper 80s while the northside is 84° (at KCI).
Yesterday by the way was the 1st official 90° day in KC. KCI hit 90° and it really felt all of that and more out there. Downtown KC has hit 90° 6 times this year already.
By comparison sake…last year we hit 90°+ 33 times in in that we had 1 day with highs 100°+ (9/8). The average is 42 days going back to 1900. So odds are yesterday was 1 of many to come for the area this summer. By the way for the year last year through 6/21 we had already hit 90°+ 5 times. I may do more with that information in tomorrow afternoon’s blog.
We actually may get a break in the heat and humidity after tomorrow for a few days…as storm chances/clouds help the cause on Monday and somewhat “cooler” and somewhat drier air moves in TUE/WED.
Trying to figure out the rain chances later Sunday into Monday is still dicey. There will be a front moving into the area Monday morning. That front will be to the west of the area later tomorrow and that should promote storms to the west of here tomorrow and what I think could happen is then (assuming they organize) some sort of complex will move towards us tomorrow night into MON AM ahead of the front itself. It’s also possible that whatever forms out to the west of the moves more towards south-central KS as opposed to towards KC. So the play-out of Monday is still questionable
Here is the forecast map for Monday morning @ 7AM showing the front draped in the region.
Now the next question becomes where exactly will that front set-up later in the afternoon as we rebuild some instability (or do we). Should we heat back up Monday afternoon, that front may be just SE of the metro or perhaps to far SE of KC to influence the chances for additional PM rainfall. In a weird way IF the storms tomorrow night move west of the region and we don’t get into the rain…then the front may be closer to KC Monday afternoon promoting additional storms…so again questions that may not be answered till Sunday afternoon/night.
That’s the way it goes with these thunderstorm clusters and trying to predict things that don’t exist.