Joe’s Weather Blog: Storms In KC Possible Again (SUN-7/6)

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Good afternoon…temperatures are coming up and the humidity is thick, although I don’t think today will be the hottest day of the year thus far unless we stage a late afternoon rally. Still toasty though. A trend I’ve noticed this season is how some of the modeling is over aggressive with forecasting the heat in KC. Perhaps it’s all the rain we’ve received and the green terrain that is holding the stronger heat at bay.

Forecast:

Rest of this afternoon: Partly cloudy, windy and warm with highs 85-90° and heat index values in the 90-95°.  Winds will gust to about 20-30 MPH.

Tonight: N MO/NE KS may see some thunderstorms, of which some activity may drift towards our area overnight. The chance is there and is something to watch for. Lows in the mid 70s and breezy IF we don’t get the rain…if we do lows could be a few degrees cooler. We’ll see if the cap that’s in place will hold…

Monday: IF we have enough sunshine we should really get hot…but I continue to wonder about remnant or trashy clouds that may be in the region holding the worst of the heat somewhat at bay. Let’s shoot for highs around 90° and let’s see if we can do better than that. We should but for whatever reason this year it’s been a bit of a struggle to really get some hot weather (90°+) which should be pretty easy to do during the summer. Storms should develop across N MO later tomorrow and move our way tomorrow night into TUE AM.

Discussion:

Last night was a very stormy night just towards the SE of the KC area…we’re talking as close to us as Pleasant Hill which was deluged with over 2.5″ of rain…also have a report from just east of there of almost 4.5″ of rain in some very heavy thunderstorms. They initially go going towards the NW of the metro in the early evening, drifted through downtown KC, weakened then regathered steam into a whole complex of storms farther to the SE and E of the KC area. Meanwhile west of Galt, MO in Grundy county another almost 5″ report came in from the storms yesterday.

As usual it was feast of famine when it came to this activity…I didn’t hear one rumble of thunder overnight. Click on the image to make it more readable

 

ScreenHunter_04 Jul. 06 12.45

Like I mentioned yesterday these darn thunderstorm complexes will drive you crazy trying to forecast them. Sometimes it’s clear cut and other times…well not so much.

Another may form tomorrow night into early Tuesday associated with a cold front that will impact our area. This may bring us our best chance of some widespread rain in awhile. Some could be heavy because the atmosphere is loaded with moisture as these last couple of days and the rain totals that have been out there validate.

Here is the forecast map for tomorrow at 7PM…there should be a cold front that will ever so slowly be pressing southwards to the north of the KC area…this front should light up as it runs into all the heat and moisture that will be ahead of it…and the front will be slow moving so between all of that, there will be some significant rainfall…perhaps more likely across N MO (which had a bunch Saturday morning), so flooding will be an increasing threat there. Then the activity will move/develop towards us. As mentioned somebody is going to get a lot of rain but it’s tough to say exactly who…we’ll have to see how things come together tomorrow night. I should also mention somebody may see some severe weather tomorrow night as well…mainly wind and some quarter sized hail as main threats I think.

sfc

It should blow through here by Tuesday AM and we should be in pretty good shape for a few days after that till the end of the week.

The NAM model cranks out close to 1″ of rain for us…between something tomorrow AM and tomorrow night.

 

Meanwhile the GFS has a rather significant 1-3″ of rainfall into parts of the region.

 

Both the images above are via NEXLAB.

It’s important to note something that I talk about often…don’t get so caught up on the placement of the max rainfall areas close to the KC region at this point. Much like we talk about during the winter season and snowfall forecasting…it’s not so much where it it…but it’s a sign that the models are trying to show potential and I think that’s very important.

We should be in the mid 80s or so TUE/WED before getting hotter again heading towards next weekend.

That’s it for today…more on that cold front tomorrow!

Joe

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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