Joe’s Weather Blog: So Much For The Intense Heat (SAT-7/26)

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Sometimes the best laid plans of a weather person don’t work out…that was clearly the case this morning as I had to significantly back off the forecast from yesterday with regards to the heat because of some new developments.

Forecast:

Rest of today: Actually we should start to heat up later this afternoon. Skies start to clear out and the sun comes out. NOT as much wind as yesterday with highs in the lower 90s. Heat index values may still top off near 100°. A heat advisory is in effect but in all honesty this will just be a typically hot and humid afternoon around the region. The spotty showers that are out there, more numerous farther east  of KC will fade as well.

Tonight: Actually there is another feature to watch this evening and that is a line of storms NW of Omaha as of this writing. Let’s see how that area maintains itself as it moves towards the SE into N MO. Aside from that skies will be partly cloudy with lows in the 70s. The blog may get updated this evening based on what these storms in the upper Midwest do over the next 6 hours.

Tomorrow: More sunshine but noticeably lower humidity, Highs in the middle-upper 80s or so.

Discussion:

Sometimes you need to adjust the forecast based on what is happening when you see it. By that I mean looking at the satellite pictures and then the radar. This morning, at least to me, it was very apparent we would 1) have cloud issues for most of the day and 2) that the chance for rain would be moving through near lunchtime. I must of mentioned it more than a dozen times this morning…and it has worked out. I didn’t get a drop of rain at the house but there have been some showers/t-storms in the area late this morning and early this afternoon. Here is a look at radar from the NWS in Pleasant Hill…

 

As far as the clouds go…those have helped to keep temperatures in check as I expected this morning. Readings are in the mid 80s as of this writing…warm for sure but nothing unusual. We’ll be fighting the clouds for the next few hours…

 

Notice as of this writing there are some noticeable breaks across NE KS and west of Topeka or so…that clearing trend will move in this afternoon.

The changes in the forecast were needed thanks to a pesky MCV or Mesoscale Convective Vortex that was generated last night from some thunderstorms in the western Plains…it migrated into C KS overnight and this morning and moved eastwards. So now we’re dealing with it. It’s a classic way a summer time forecast of high heat can bust and sometimes you can’t figure it out till the features form and either hold together or not. When I got to work I dropped the forecast immediately about 5° and lowered it a bit more by 8:45 as I saw the 1st visible pictures of the day and noticed the “thickness” of the clouds moving into the area this morning.

There is another issue that needs to be written about this afternoon and that is this area of storms (severe as of this writing) NW of Omaha, NE…and dropping SEwards.

 

The surface map is a chaotic mess this afternoon…the real cold front that will usher in the lower dewpoints and the more comfortable air is moving through the N Plains now.

SFC

 

The storms across the upper Midwest will make the forecast a little more interesting this evening as they drop SEwards towards N MO and NE MO. They will need to be watched and we’ll need to see how they hold together over the next 6 hours or so. The atmosphere up there is getting more and more unstable and there will be sunshine ahead of that feature that will help make things more unstable across N MO and S IA ahead of the storms, perhaps allowing them to live longer and affect that region especially. The latest from the SPC has a risk of severe weather up there.

Cooler and drier air is rushing into the N Plains region and will come our way overnight tonight and tomorrow AM. The late July sunshine should counteract some of the cooler air tomorrow…hence we’re still well into the 80s in the PM but the drier air in the form of lower dewpoints will certainly be welcome.

The forecast from MON-THU appears in good shape as of this writing. Cool mornings for late July and pleasant afternoon highs.

That’s it for today…the clouds are a good thing I guess…expect more sunshine tomorrow.

Joe

 

4 comments

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