Joe’s Weather Blog: Slim Then Better Chances? (THU-7/31)

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Another great day from a comfortable side across the region today with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 50s…really can’t complain too much about this weather…right now (through yesterday) we are #4 in terms of coolest July months in KC weather history!

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and pleasant again with lows in the 50s

Tomorrow: There actually is a chance of some scattered convection in the region at some point during the day…perhaps the chance is somewhat better across N MO…highs again in the 80s.

The Weekend: Overall looks OK with slowly warming temperatures and highs 85-90°. Humidity levels will be on the increase but it should be a slow process.

Discussion:

The comfortable weather continues but over the next 7 days we should slowly see a return to more summer-ish days in the region as the humidity slowly increases and the cooler airmass that has been in control of our weather this week moves away from the area.

The satellite picture is somewhat interesting in what it shows.

 

One feature that is of interest to me is a little spin in the clouds across northeast NE. That little feature is going to drop towards the SE over the next 24 hours…and with it approaching the area tomorrow…I wouldn’t be shocked if some scattered convection can fire up. The forecast soundings indicate that the airmass in place tomorrow won’t be capped, so assuming we can get some instability to build up…and assuming we can pop temperatures into the 85-90° range…there is a chance that we could see some convection in the area.

At this point though the chances don’t look too good…I’d probably place it in the 10-20% chance for any one spot in the region…not so great…

In reality we’ll probably have to wait till later next week (THU) for our next chance of some decent rainfall.

The model data is picking up some sort of disturbance that will rotating through the desert SW over the next couple of days then spinning around through the Rockies early next week and then potentially affecting our area. That is a lot of distance for a disturbance to move and for the models to have a good grasp on how things play out…ahead of whatever may move in…odds favor some hotter weather (really seasonable) to move into the region for early next week. One thing to note though is as whatever disturbance comes into the Rockies, there could be a way that we have an increase in the clouds to stunt the temperatures a little. To me I think a run to around 90° is likely through into the middle of next week. Then with the disturbance moving this way…hopefully we could pick up some MUCH-needed rainfall

There are signs that we could see another shot of somewhat below average temperatures again late next week.

Remember a couple of blogs ago when I connected the really cool July months in the KC area to the heavy odds of cooler than average weather in August. That connection is screaming in the data today…check out this 8-14 day forecast issued today…showing the odds of below average temperatures…

 

I noticed yesterday that the price of natural gas is dropping and set an 8 month low yesterday due to the lack of demand from electric companies. Not only are we cool in KC but the nation overall (excepting the desert SW on average) has been cool this summer…take a look at the hard data since June 1st…

 

All that green coloring represents below average temperatures. You can see the effects of the drought in CA. So the cool weather means electric companies don’t need to use their stockpiles of natural gas to generate electricity to meet the increased demand…so as a result there is less demand for natural gas. Take a look at prices over the past 6 months of natural gas…notice the significant drop-off in early June.

 

Capture

 

I don’t know much about this stuff but I do wonder what can happen in SEPT-OCT as prices bottom out and perhaps we start setting the stage for another colder than average winter season through the eastern half of the US (which is what I’m thinking about right now). The price of natural gas really spiked during the winter last year…I’m just saying…

That’s it for today…if I have a chance I’ll get a new blog up tomorrow morning…then I’ll be off this weekend. BTW…I’ll be filling in for MT for the next 2 weeks so I’ll get blogs done in the morning in most cases starting this coming Monday.

Joe

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